QC’s WK18 NFL Thoughts

As usual, better coached/designed teams fill out the playoffs. The only teams in the top 14 in play design differential to not make the playoffs were the 49ers, Bengals, Falcons, and Seahawks. They lost out to the Texans, Steelers, Chiefs, and Rams who were all +6 TO or better. The worst designed team in the field is the team with the best record, Kansas City, who ranked 21st in play design differential.

Bengals fans are bemoaning an opening loss to terrible New England, but if it you ask me the Cincinnati season pivoted on just two plays against Baltimore: Evan McPherson’s missed game-winning field goal in the first meeting and a failed 2-point PAT in the second. Change those results of just those two plays and Cincinnati would be the AFC North champs.

San Francisco fell apart because of injuries, lack of pass rush, turnovers (-10), and bad place kicking. Kyle Shannahan’s play design is still top shelf.

The Bengals squandered the easiest schedule in the NFL (-.90%). The Rams survived the hardest schedule in the NFL. (+.89%).

Chicago Bears’ QB Caleb Williams will be under the microscope next year. The Bears pass protection (-.806 sacks yds lost/att) was the worst in the NFL. Respected analyst Merril Hoge believes that is because Williams looks at the rush and does not keep his eye downfield. Hoge says this is super hard to correct. Bears fans hope he is wrong.

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