This indecision’s killin’ me. If Bob Kraft don’t love Jerod Mayo set him free. With apologies to The Kinks, it is that time of the year when NFL owners like the Patriots Kraft must decide whether their head coach should stay or should he go. Over the past 15 years, any coach in the bottom 10 in play design differential–and particularly the bottom five–is likely to get a pink slip. Let’s take a look.
32. New York Giants Brian Daboll. The QB play has been awful. Daboll was quick to point out that the shocking win over the Colts on Sunday was made possible by an unexpectedly sharp performance by QB Drew Lock. It sounded like a person trying to create a distraction to me. Even when New York made the playoffs in 2022, the Giants ranked 20th in play design differential. Last year they ranked 28th. If I owned the team, I would move on and give Bill Belichick whatever he wants. The real owner, John Mara, says he has not yet decided.
31. Cleveland Browns Kevin Stefanski. Baker Mayfield and Deshawn Watson are the back flap and front flap of Stefanski’s loin cloth. In 2020, Cleveland posted decent +0.95% play design differential and made the playoffs with Baker Mayfield at QB. Then they slipped into mediocrity and gave up on Mayfield. Last year, the Browns posted a solid +1.75% play design differential and made the playoffs with a smorgasbord of QBs. Most of that was attributable to DC Jim Schwartz’s design. Now the entire operation has collapsed. Again. Stefanski is a handsome gent who has what Billy Beane called “the good face.” He looks like an HC. He has friends in the media. He has won NFL COY … twice!! (Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin has never won it.) My view is that there is not as much steak beneath the sizzle. I would start over.
30. Chicago Bears Thomas Brown. Chicago has already dispatched HC Matt Eberflus. Brown has not won a game. They already (fingers crossed) have their franchise QB. Next.
29. Carolina Panthers. Dave Canales is not going anywhere. The Panthers got off to a horrible start. He sat QB Bryce Young. Since being reinserted in the starting lineup, Young has played like a serviceable NFL QB. Mostly. The Panthers have shown acceptable two-steps forward, one-step back improvement since Week 9. Owners have a learning curve too, as David Tepper has learned. One-and-done is not a formula for success. Canales is the rare HC in the bottom five who is safe (for now).
28. New England Patriots Jerod Mayo. In 2023 under Belichick, New England’s play design differential was -1.87%. Now it is -4.92%. That is with a promising new QB, Drake Maye. If I was the owner, I would swallow my pride, call Belichick, and try to patch things up. That probably will not happen. But you have to wonder what the trajectory of this team would be if Kraft had not pulled the trigger, and the Hoodie was still around to coach Maye up.
27. Dallas Cowboys Mike McCarthy. Jerry Jones is one of the most patient owners in the NFL. Unless the Cowboys embarrass him, he tends to ignore the hue and cry and maintain the status quo. He also seems to genuinely like Mike McCarthy. Midseason blowout losses to Detroit, Philadelphia, and Houston put Jones to the test. But McCarthy has pulled the team back to respectability without Dak Prescott. He probably stole at least one more year by doing so.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars Doug Pederson. Coming off a 2022 playoff appearance, the Jaguars were 9-2 in 2023 and hosting the Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals with a chance to move into the top seed in the AFC. Jacksonville then lost their last 5 games and missed the playoffs. They have been horrible this year. Mega-bucks QB Trevor Lawrence has been injury prone. It will be a surprise if Pederson survives.
25. Indianapolis Colts Shane Steichen. Owner Jim Irsay, Jr. has never been slow to dispose of an HC. My view is the media has grossly overrated Steichen since the day he arrived. The idea that Steichen would recreate the Jalen Hurts led Eagles with inexperienced and inaccurate Anthony Richardson was naive. The Colts fell out of playoff contention last week with an embarrassing loss to the dreadful Giants. Irsay probably will feel the need to blame somebody. I doubt Steichen is the HC beyond Monday.
24. Las Vegas Raiders Antonio Pearce. With Tom Brady as partial owner, this is another place I would think Bill Belichick could be the answer. As I suspected in the preseason, the QBs have been TO machines. But the defensive play design has been good (6.671 DQCYPA, -.596 sack yds/att). Assuming they are still out on Belichick, staying the course with Pearce and finding a QB is probably the way to go.
23. Tennessee Titans Brian Callahan. Tennessee is another team that desperately needs a QB. The Titans have turned the ball over a staggering 33 times. Since shocking Houston, their performance has been embarrassing. It they lose to the barely trying Texans on Sunday it could be one-and-done for Callahan.