“Football season starts after Thanksgiving,” Bill Belichick said. That may not be true in the AFC. The Kansas City and Buffalo are firmly positioned at the top of the conference. All that remains to be decided is who will be the No.1 seed, who win the AFC North (Baltimore or Pittsburgh) and who will be the final playoff team (Denver, Miami, or even Cincinnati). The top of the NFC is much more interesting.

Detroit will enter the post-Thanksgiving stretch run as the favorite to win the NFC and the Super Bowl. The Lions methodically dispatched Indianapolis last week, 24-7. But Detroit still needs to keep winning because Philadelphia and Minnesota are keeping pace. Four of their last five games are against teams ranked in the Top 10 in play design differential (Green Bay, Buffalo, San Francisco, and Minnesota). Except for a visit to seek revenge against the 49ers, all of those games are at home. It is by far the most challenging slate facing the NFC contenders.

Philadelphia has gotten it together. The Eagles committed 8 turnovers during the first four games and struggled to a 2-2 record. Since the bye, they have committed 3 turnovers in seven games and won them all. They face Baltimore on the road on Sunday, but that is the last team on their schedule that is currently in the Top 10 in play design differential. If Saquon Barkley continues to play as he did against the Rams, Philadelphia might be the betting favorite by the end of the season.

Minnesota keeps winning despite its turnovers. The Vikings have turned it over 8 times in their last four games. They have won them all against soft competition because they also have created 8 turnovers. The final three games of the year are at Seattle, Green Bay at home, and at Detroit. Sam Darnold and company will not survive that stretch if they do not clean it up on offense.