Did you see the @The33rdTeamFB post theorizing the Chiefs should be under .500? It is drawing some heat. Kansas City does not look like an undefeated team through the coaching stats lens in play design differential (+0.66), play design differential (+0.32), or turnover differential (-4 TO). But there is one obscure metric by which Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, et al. rank No. 1 in the NFL … Net First Downs/Game: 4.78. First downs are opportunities. The Chiefs create opportunities for themselves and limit opportunities for their opponents better than anyone else in the NFL and slightly better than the Eagles (4.66) and the 49ers (4.00), both legit Super Bowl contenders. Those teams rank No. 2 and No. 1 in play design differential but have lost twice and four times, respectively. Kansas City just keeps winning. There has been a little luck involved. But the main reason the Chiefs keep winning is nobody does a better job of giving itself opportunities to win than Kansas City.

Do not write off Kyle Shannahan. San Francisco surged back to the top of the play design differential rankings in a closer-than-it-should have been 23-20 win at Tampa Bay. Star RB Christian McCaffrey returned. Multi-threat Deebo Samuel is healthy at least at the moment. The 49ers are still waiting for LB Dre Greenlaw to return from an Achilles injury he suffered in the Super Bowl last year. If they get him back after Thanksgiving for the stretch run and he can play at anything close to his old self, it will be a big upgrade on defense. Shannahan is sticking by shaky kicker Jake Moody, who missed 3 FGs vs. the Bucs but nailed a game-winner. Their record is only 5-4, but if the Niners can get/stay healthy and Moody can pull himself together and not send Shannahan to the medicine cabinet for an antiacid every time he lines up for a kick, they will be super dangerous in the tournament.

Are the Cardinals for real? After spanking the Jets, 31-6, on Sunday they are 6-4 and are 1/2-game in front of San Francisco in the NFC West with a win over the Niners in pocket. They have won four in a row and five of their last six. They started 1-3. At that point, they were near the bottom of the NFL in both play design differential (-4.00%) and player productivity differential (-5.51). Now they are approaching the top 10 in both (+1.38% and 1.07, respectively). HC Jon Gannon (who learned his football from perhaps the greatest Ohio HS football coach ever, Chuck Kyle at Cleveland St. Ignatius HS) has done a great job. The schedule from here out looks very manageable after the bye this week. Look for Arizona to stay in the race until the end.