Even for New Orleans, the Philadelphia Eagles 40-22 second line funeral procession for the Kansas City Chiefs quest for an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl victory was impressive. Turnovers were the difference. Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes committed a cardinal sin throwing late and back over the middle and DB Cooper DeJean made him pay with a pick six. Pressure caused Mahomes’ next pass to miss its mark and find LB Zack Baun. After Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts flipped a touchdown pass to WR A.J. Brown, the Eagles had a 24-0 lead and the game for all intents and purposes was over.

Philadelphia won the turnover battle and finished the postseason +11 TO in four games. The 4 TO in the game were a bit of a surprise given that the teams had combined to turn the ball over just once in their five prior playoff games. (The Chiefs lost a fumble in the AFC Championship Game vs Buffalo.) Hurts’ first half interception left him one attempt short of the NFL postseason record for most consecutive attempts without an interception held by New Orleans QB Drew Brees (215 attempts).

Before the game, I found a study that used machine learning to predict turnovers. According to Joel Bock’s study, a turnover is most likely to happen after a pass attempt and/or on first down. Sure enough, all 4 TO in the game came after a pass attempt or on first down (counting sacks as pass attempts).

The Eagles pass coverage was very impressive. After Kansas City fell behind, Mahomes could not get rid of the ball quickly because his receivers were covered. Forced to hold the ball, the pass rush got to him for 6 sacks. While Philadelphia’s coverage was very good, it was not at the elite level of prior pass defenses such as the 1963 Chicago Bears, 1982 Miami Dolphins, 2002 Tampa Buccaneers, and 2013 Seattle Seahawks. Those pass defenses ranked first in both interceptions and passing yards allowed during the regular season. The Eagles gave up the fewest passing yards during the regular season but ranked only 13th in interceptions. That was good but not great … until Super Bowl LIX.