Carolina lost 43-13 to Tampa Bay, was never in the game, and moved up from sixth best designed team in the NFL to the third best. How does that happen? Well, first, the Chiefs, Packers, and Ravens all failed to play to their prior play-design standard (and, like the Panthers, lost). Second, Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield threw only 11 passes and average a puny 4.9 yards per pass attempt. Tampa Bay got fat on 4 Carolina turnovers and a safety. After jumping to an early lead, the Bucs did the smart thing and ran the ball (49x for 258 yards) to eat clock as Bryce Young and company could not get out of their own way. The game was a great demonstration of how volatile NFL competition can be. My view is HC Todd Bowles’ team is the first 3 games with Baker under center (all losses).

I cannot recall the last time I saw a game turn completely around like the Bengals 35-13 win over the Ravens did. Baltimore dominated the first half and went to the locker room leading 13-0. Then Joe Burrow came out and tossed 4 TD passes and the Bengals tallied 5 TDs on their 5 second-half possessions. If you figure out an explanation let me know because I sure do not have one.

I grabbed a piece of the 4-2-1 New York Giants to win the NFC East at +155. Apparently, J.J. McCarthy can only play for a Harbaugh. He has looked good since arriving from Minnesota. The Giants are by far the best designed team in the division (+1.81% play design differential). The pass coverage has been good. The schedule (-0.93% play design differential) is the easiest in the NFC. The -3 turnover differential is concerning but only Washington has a positive turnover differential, and they are consistently in the bottom ten in play design differential. Over the course of a season, I prefer my money to be riding on John Harbaugh to Dan Quinn. The Cowboys are too inconsistent and the Eagles are fading.

Is it more surprising that the Vikings are the last unbeaten team in the NFL or the Chargers are the last winless team? Looking at strength of schedule, I would say it is the Vikings. The Bolts have the second toughest schedule in the NFL (+1.24% play design differential) behind the Dolphins (+1.33%). Five of Minnesota’s six games to date have been against teams ranking in the Bottom 10 in play design differential. With an overall schedule difficulty of 0.19% play design differential, I expect to see the Vikings come back to earth soon. Larry Csonka and the rest of the 1972 Dolphins pop champagne when the last undefeated team in the NFL loses. I do not think Zonk has anything to worry about this year.

Hard to say which NFC goliath made a better move. First, 49ers GM John Lynch brought Colts’ monster DT DeForest Buckner back to San Francisco. I love tall interior pass rushers. By getting gut pressure, they prevent a QB from stepping up in the pocket. It is the equivalent of pirates burning a ship’s lifeboats as they board. The 49ers toughest rival, Seattle, had a well-known weakness at guard. The move looked like a game changer … for a day or two. Then Seahawks GM John Schneider persuaded the Colts to send him G Quenton Nelson. Check. Nelson is a mauler who can hold the line against Buckner. Seattle and San Francisco are the two best designed teams in the NFL. It seems almost certain that, barring injuries, they will meet three times with the last deciding the NFC’s representative in the Super Bowl. These deals only make it more likely.