Could the Browns be … good? They’re already mid … at least for now. Cleveland’s +0.23% play design differential and +0.02 player productivity differential is almost spot on the 0-line that defines a perfectly mediocre team (per coaching stats, which have been around since 2008). QB Deshaun Watson has thrown 5 TD passes (good). He has only 2 combined interceptions and fumbles (also good). He has posted 7.048 QCYPA (also good) and been sacked for -.627 yards per pass attempt (not good). RB Quinshon Judkins showed signs of life in the 21-18 upset of Carolina. On defense, the Browns have not forced turnovers and the pass rush (-.438 yards lost per attempt) and pass coverage (6.971 DQCYPA) have been average. K Andre Szmyt is a perfect 10 for 10 on FGs and PATs. At -0.53%, the schedule is not as weak as the slates the Bengals (-1.48%) or the Ravens (-1.44%) face and only a little more challenging than the Steelers (-0.12%) opponents. If Cleveland’s play at the line of scrimmage improves and everything else at least stays the same, the Browns could hang in there.

The Raiders stayed unbeaten with a 35-27 come from behind win in New Orleans. They’re +5 turnovers is the best in the NFL and they rank 9th in the NFL in play design differential (+3.24%). But it is about to get hard starting this week with the Chiefs. Las Vegas currently faces the toughest schedule in the NFL (+1.77%). The next seven opponents, which include the Bills, Rams, 49ers, and Chiefs in addition to the Chiefs, is a gauntlet.

The Vikings picked up only 9 first downs in their 23-16 win at Tampa Bay. Myles Price’s 86-yard punt return for a TD was the difference. Minnesota’s success is tied to its ability to score points despite not generating offense. I use a system to compare points scored (and yielded) compared to first downs generated which is total points scored minus PATs and safeties divided by first downs. I subtract PATs and safeties because PATs are a “bonus” and not derived from first downs and safeties are the only way a team can score without possession and not derived from first downs. Historically, a first down is worth 1 point using this method. The Vikings are +10.67 points per game over expected points, the best in the league. The schedule is manageable (-0.28%). But unless they can improve the passing game (6.178 QCYPA and -.681 yards loss per pass attempt), their success does not look sustainable.

Green Bay is reeling after a 35-14 loss to Atlanta. The ground game has been non-existent. So, GM Brian Guntekunst brought in veteran O-line reinforcements this week in Kevin Zeitler, Mekhi Becton, and Laken Tomlinson. It is hard to imagine that the Packers could almost completely rebuild an offensive line after 3 games and be a contender. But I think they are still quite in contention in the NFC North where, as of this writing there are no positively designed teams, and they will get pass rusher Micha Parsons back in a few weeks. I have to give Guntekunst props for trying.