I have always had a thing for the middle.

Maybe it is because I am a middle child. One brother is one year older and the other is two and a half years younger. When we were kids and my mom would put a basket of rolls or anything else on the table, we all wanted the middle one. When my grandmother died at 100 years old, at the graveyard, my father said to her dozen grandchildren, “You can take a rose from vase on the casket.” I jumped up and selected first. Then I whispered to my younger brother, “I got the middle one.” To which he replied, “You’re sick.” My daughter, although not a middle child, is carrying on the family tradition by often snagging “middle one” and then running some smack talk in my direction, which brings me great joy.

You know who does not have a thing for the middle: Every bookmaker. When I tell my buddy Chris Andrews that I am playing a middle, he softly moans as if I have wounded him and says pathetically, “I thought we were friends.”

Another rule of the middle: There can be only one. You cannot rearrange the items to create additional middle ones.

There is one middle one this week and I grabbed it:

Jets -225 facing the Dolphins +4.5 (-104) at Met Life Stadium.

New York is 2-4 but at +2.34% play differential and +4 turnover differential they have played better than their record. Everything has been solid except the pass protection (-.898 sack yards lost per attempt). The schedule has been tough with three games against the NFC North (Packers, Lions, Bears).

Miami’s schedule, which has included all three of the NFL’s remaining unbeaten teams (49ers, Chiefs, and Vikings), has been brutal. To a point, it explains the rough 0-5 / -6.64% play design differential / -4 turnover differential. First year HC Jeff Hafley has a lot of work to do. Coming off a bye, he had additional time to prepare for Geno Smith and the Jets’ pedestrian offense.

From a clean pocket, Geno’s passer rating has been about 107. Under pressure, it has declined to 53.8. Miami DE Chop Robinson has shown potential, but he has been inconsistent. A breakout game from Chop would help

The Dolphins’ pass rush has been non-existent in four of their five games. But against Minnesota, it caused some trouble for Kyler Murray. Miami stayed close, falling 15-10 (although Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson could have walked into the end zone for a clinching TD but instead took a seat on the one-yard line to drain the clock.)

My number independent of turnovers and special teams is Jets -5.5. When turnovers are added to the mix, it balloons to Jets -11. To hit the middle, Miami needs to win the turnover battle for the first time this season by at least +1. To do that, Hafley needs production from RB Ollie Gordon II, particularly on first down. A study shows that interceptions are most likely to occur on first down or on a down after a pass or sack. NFL coaches call lots of passes on first down and on downs after passes or sacks when trailing. Thus, Miami needs to avoid falling behind early. Gordon could help with that as he is coming of two good games. He is not fast or flashy. But if he can move the chains against a defense that absorbed 54 rushing attempts from Chicago a few weeks ago, Haffley’s team can keep it close or sneak in through the backdoor. (To do so, however, do not be surprised if we have to sweat a late 2-point PAT.)

According VSIN Steve Makinen’s column this week, underdogs in this spot such as the Dolphins are 35-31 SU and 44-21-1 ATS (67.7%) since 2015. If Miami somehow can rattle Geno and finish +2 TO or better, they could win SU (and I will almost breakeven). But I am not confident enough to pull the trigger on the money line.

Besides, if I did, I would not have any chance to grab the middle.