When most people of Vince Lombardi, they think “winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing.” Those people must not bet. Because covering is a thing. Alas, I have struggled to win or cover this year.

“Life is paradox,” is what I think about when I think about Lombardi. A paradox is a truth that appears contradictory or opposed to common sense. Lombardi paradox and life had a lot in common.

Lombardi loved to quote the 24th verse of the ninth chapter of First Corinthians: “Don’t you know that all the runners in the stadium run, but only one gets the prize. So, run to win.”

St. Paul must not have known any passers. He also must not have known that “run to win” in the NFL is a paradox. He probably would like the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field in Green Bay this Sunday.

In the NFL, it is indisputable that passing is a superior technology for moving the football. Even the worst passing teams will average more yards per pass attempt than the best rushing teams will average running the football. But here is the paradox: In general, the more a team runs, the better the team passes. It is a relationship between quantity and quality. For this reason, great passing teams usually rank near the top of the league in rushing attempts. Poor passing teams usually rank near the top of the league in passing attempts.

Nobody in the NFL runs more than Ben Johnson’s Bears. Last week against the Jets, Chicago ran the ball 54 times. It was the most since November 13, 2011, when Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos ran 55x in a 17-10 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Tebow threw just eight passes.

Against the Jets, Chicago RBs Kyle Monangai ran 30x for 146 yards and DeAndre Swift chipped in 15 carries for 58 yards. That made backup QB Tyson Bagent’s day a lot easier. The Bears gained more first downs (34) than the Jets ran plays (32). Eight of those first downs, however, came courtesy for penalties assessed by Referee Carl Cheffers and his crew. I do not expect that to happen again. Referee Clay Martin planned to take the weekend off but instead he will be taking over Adrian Hill’s crew while Hill serves a one-game suspension for some salty language last week during the Vikings 15-10 win over the Dolphins. Martin and his crew usually call it pretty even while Hill’s crew tends to throw a lot more flags and usually on the home team. So, trading Hill for Martin may be a boon for the home team.

The Packers run defense has varied from good (at Jets) to shaky (at Vikings and at Buccaneers) to dreadful (vs. Falcons). On average, Green Bay faces over 33 rushing attempts and yields almost 140 yards per game. That don’t sound too promising.

On offense, Green Bay has not been able to run at all. If they have to run, they will not win. Defenses have gone after QB Jordan Love. He has hung in there. He has receivers that can hurt a defense. I do not think Chicago’s pass defense is as good as it has looked the last three weeks against the Vikings (in wind and rain), the listing Eagles, and the still developing Jets. If the Packers line holds up, Love should hurt the Bears downfield as he did in the playoffs last year.

Both of Johnson’s top runners are nicked up. Monangai has a turf toe injury. He si out. Swift has problems with a hip and knee. I think Swift will go. Roschon Johnson will be the next man up and he is more of a pass catcher. Still, even without Monangai, I expect Johnson to dial up at least 35 rushes for 160 yards.

Still, rushing is a “beta” technology in the NFL, passing is “alpha.”

I like Green Bay. The last five NFL teams to rush at least 50 times in a game went 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their next game. Like the Bears, all five played on the road and all five were favored (by between 1.5 points and 7.5 points). Ony the 2022 Eagles were able to eke out a win (20-17 at the Cardinals).

When Monangai missed practice on Thursday, the line moved from Chicago -2.5 to -1.5 (-110). A full point is a lot for an injured RB. But it will not dissuade me.

I am taking the point and a half and the Packers.