Off to an ice-cold start in 2026, I am looking elsewhere in Week 4 for help to try to break out of the slump.

On Fridays while on the elliptical at the Hilliker YMCA, I like to listen to @alexwhitee and @andrewssports “Football Frenzy” show on X. This week, bookmaker Chris “The Greek” Andrews mentioned that “one of my absolute sharpest players” is on the winless Houston Texans hosting the Dallas Cowboys. When The Greek throws out a bone like this, I wag my tail and sink my teeth into it.

“One guy said, it’s kind of funny,” The Greek said, “He said, ‘the Cowboys defense is like Taco Bell. It’s the same ingredients. They just change it around every once in a while, call it something new. But it’s still the same seven ingredients all the time. That’s the Cowboys defense. They did this and that. And they still stink.’”

Jerry Jones added a new ingredient this week, former Pittsburgh DB Joey Porter, Jr. That is a spicy ingredient. He should make his Cowboys’ debut in this one. He should help the pass coverage which has yielded 7 TD passes and 8.238 QCYPA in the first 3 games. But he probably won’t help a non-existent pass rush much. For the season, Dallas has 1 sack for -1 yard (-.012 yards lost per pass attempt).

Houston QB C.J. Stroud gets back his top pass catcher, WR Nico Collins. With Collins in the lineup opening day against Buffalo, Houston put up 26 first downs and 31 points. Without Collins the last two weeks, those numbers were 22 and 17 and 6 and 17, respectively, against Cincinnati and Indianapolis.

The Cowboys are a little better designed (+2.55%), but I still would make the Texans -1.5 favorites based on player productivity differential and turnover differential.

Moreover, Houston is averaging -11.33 points per game below what I expect their first down generation to put on the scoreboard, by far the worst in the NFL. Dallas is averaging +4.66 points per game above expectations (tied for 7th best). For this reason, this game does indeed look like one where regression to the mean should favor the Texans.

Hopefully, The Greek’s “absolute sharpest player” will be right.

I will not try to make up all the losses at once. But I am down for a little Houston -2.5 at -110.