I grabbed the Bears -5.5 at reduced -105 juice early in the week figuring concussed Vikings starting QB Kyler Murray would miss the game in Soldier Field and the number would move to at least -6.5 or even -7.5. Murray will not play. Carson Wentz will be under center. But the number has gone the other way to -4.5.

I don’t care. Minnesota backers are not considering the immense amount of help the Vikings got last week at home in a 39-22 win over Green Bay. The zebras awarded Minnesota 5 1DNs via penalty and flagged the Vikings for only 15 yards in penalties while nicking the Packers for 98 yards. I award 1 point for each 1DN via penalty and a 1/10th of a point for each net penalty yard. Using that formular, Minnesota received 13.3 points of penalty help from Shawn Hochuli’s crew. Teams coming off a 10 point or more penalty subsidy are just 7-21 against the number since 2023. Land Clark’s crew will work this game. Clark’s crew usually calls it pretty even and rarely provides a significant shade to the road team.

Further, the Vikings trailed Green Bay 22-10 with 20 minutes to play. Wentz needed to move the Vikings just 43 yards to score 21 of Minnesota’s last 29 points. The Vikings also stopped the Packers on downs in the Minnesota red zone.

Many had Chicago pegged for regression coming off a +22 TO season. But of the 10 teams that finished with +20 TO in the last 20 years, five came back to win at least 11 games and 2010 Green Bay won 10 and the Super Bowl. Caleb Williams was spectacular in Ben Johnson’s offense in an opening 59-37 win at Carolina. Williams improvised like only he can and, more importantly, saw the field much better than he did early in his first season in Johnson’s offense. Minnesota got pressure on Jordan Love, but he still scored on 4 of his first 6 drives. Poor 3DN (3 for 12) and 4DN (0-2) efficiency helped DC Brian Flores unit look better than it played.

Chicago’s DC Dennis Allen could not have been happy with his unit’s performance in Carolina. Panthers QB Bryce Young struck for 3 TDs and over 360 passing yards. Facing a backup QB in forecasted 30 mph wind and rain should help. Minnesota ran for only 107 yards against the Packers and top back Jordan Mason is out with a thumb injury. The Bears scorched Carolina for 291 yards on the ground so if the weather grounds the offenses Chicago should enjoy a significant edge.

I also like Tampa Bay to bounce back at home against Cleveland, who could generate no offense (until garbage time) and turned the ball over twice in a 31-10 loss in its opener at Jacksonville. The Buccaneers turned the ball over 4x in their opening 33-27 loss at Cincinnati. In non-division games, favorites coming off 4 TO or more performances are 33-6 SU since 2020. I will not lot lay -8.5 points on Baker Mayfield. But Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence so easily took what he wanted from the Browns’ defense, scoring on five of his first six possessions and boosting the Jaguars to a 31-0 lead early in the second half, that I think Baker can do enough to get the win. I coupled a Bucs win with a Bears cover at +135.