For first-time NFL HCs, the Week 1 road has been a highway to hell. Since the NFL realigned its divisions in 2002, brand new HCs (not to be confused with recycled HCs who tried and failed in a different city) are 36-59 (.379) on debut on the road. There are five HCs driving the bus for the first time in 2026: Baltimore’s Jesse Minter (at Indianapolis), Cleveland’s Todd Monken (at Jacksonville), Buffalo’s Joe Brady (at Houston), Miami’s Jeff Hafley (at Las Vegas), and Arizona’s Mike LeFleur (at LA Chargers).

The script flips if you take a points subsidy from your bookmaker. Against the number, brand new HCs on debut on the road are 56-37-2 (.610 chance you will retain ownership of your principle).

There are a lot of options.

The place I will start is with the Colts on the money line. Only two brand-new HC have won AND covered on the road as favorites since 2014. The last one favored, Urban Meyer in 2021, was laying 3 points when his Jaguars took a 37-21 shellacking from fellow brand-new HC David Culley in Houston. Bookmakers are making Minter and his Ravens carry 3-to-3.5 points. These teams were dead even statistically in 2025, and both finished 8-9. But Indy was the far superior team until QB Daniel Jones suffered a hairline fracture of his left leg and ruptured his right Achilles tendon and the Colts’ collapsed. The Ravens had no pass rush in 2025, and I don’t think Trey Hendrickson and the ancient Calais Campbell will be an instantaneous cure. Also, two key Baltimore defenders against the run and Jonathan Taylor, DT Nnamdi Madubuike and LB Teddye Buchanan are out.

Cleveland is as auto-fade as it gets Week 1. The Browns are 3-23-1 starting an NFL season since returning in 1999 from their brief hiatus. QB Deshaun Watson has not played in a game since October of 2024. It is hard to believe Watson can launch a return to glory against a Jacksonville defense that gave up only 4 TD passes during an 8-game winning streak to close the season (albeit mostly against QBs no more accomplished than Watson).

When Josh Allen went to Houston last year, the Texans nearly killed him. Will Anderson and company sacked Allen 8x for -70 yards. But Allen still had the Bills in the Houston red zone with a chance to win in the last minute. Pass rush is not nearly as predictable as pass coverage. (It’s like Aerosmith’s Steven Tyler sings, “I know nobody knows where it comes and where it goes.”) In addition, I have been hearing a lot of buzz about the Texans being the team to beat in the AFC. That always makes me nervous. This is the game upon which I most likely will pass.

Even if Jeremiyah Love is not 100 percent, I will take the points and the Cardinals at the Chargers. Arizona was devastated by injuries last year. I think they will be better than expected especially DE Walter Nolen III who could be a wrecking ball. I also like the secondary which added S Andrew Wingard from Jacksonville, a low-key quality addition. Since 1994, when the NFL adopted the salary cap, 18 RBs have been taken in the first 6 picks of the NFL Draft. Sixteen (16) of those 18 teams won or lost by no more than 2 points in Week 1. Love was the No. 3 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Finally, Miami’s brand-new HC Jeff Hafley will debut in Las Vegas against the Raiders’ brand-new HC Klint Kubiak. The last two times brand-new HC have debuted against one another; it has gotten out of hand. In 2021, Houston and Culley ripped Urban Meyer and Jacksonville and Nick Siriani’s Eagles destroyed Arthur Smith’s Falcons in Atlanta, 32-6. Kubiak will start Kirk Cousins at QB who won 4 straight close games to close the season in Atlanta last year. LBs Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker should improve the defense. Almost everyone is new in Miami. Hafley will need DE Chop Robinson to blossom to have any semblance of a pass rush. I doubt anyone could pick a single member of the Dolphins’ secondary out of a lineup. Career backup Malik Willis gets his shot at QB, but Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are not coming through that door at WR. I would be reluctant to lay a field goal and a hook with the Raiders, but I will not be reluctant to include them in a four-team parlay of Colts, Jaguars, Raiders and Cardinals plus the points, which you should be able to get for +800 or better.