Instead of breaking down film of the Patriots 20-17 OT loss to the Titans, New England coach Jerod Mayo should have met with Brian Skinner, professor of physics at Case Western Reserve University. Professor Skinner (@gravity_levity) wrote the book on decision making, when to sacrifice points to reduce variance and when to risk points to increase variance. Coach Mayo found himself in the latter situation on Sunday. On the last play of regulation, rookie QB Drake Maye scrambled all over the field and lofted a TD pass to RB Ramondre Stevenson to cut Tennesee’s lead to 17-16. It was a mircacle heave. The Titans had dominated the day. Their player productivity finished at 4.97 points while the Patriots generated just 1.91 points. New England was also -2 TO. There was simply no reason for Coach Mayo to consider his team the favorite in OT. So, as Professor Skinner has taught, the correct move was to throw caution to the wind, risk losing points and defeat, and make it a one-play game by going for a 2-point PAT. Coach Mayo did not. Instead, he played to reduce variance. Of course, the Patriots lost in OT. The odds are -1 million this will not be the last time this happens in the NFL this year. It should never happen. Professor Skinner is a physicist. That means he is smarter than every coach in the NFL. They should just follow the rule. If you stop by campus, I bet he would walk you through it. That is, after he finishes the lecture, he is giving today: “Johnson noice thermometry using using ohmic and hydrodynamic electrons.” It’s easy stuff, not nearly as difficult as mastering sound logic on the NFL sideline.

New Orleans Dennis Allen won’t have to worry about figuring it out anymore. Saints’ management canned him after an embarrassing 23-22 loss at Carolina to the same Panthers team New Orleans destroyed Week 1, 47-10. The Saints blew out Dallas the next week, 44-19. They have lost 7 straight since smoking the Cowboys. Carolina is the worst designed team in the NFL and Dallas is the fourth worst. New Orleans is heading in that direction, slipping a foot onto QC’s list of the 10 worst coached teams in the NFL at No. 23. Allen simply could not survive that free fall. Splat!

Cowboys’ HC Mike McCarthy could be next. Dallas QB Dak Prescott was injured on Sunday. That’s too bad for bettors because now the bookies will jack up the lines. The Dallas defense has been simply horrific. Five of their eight opponents have generated infinite player productivity and better than 9.8 yards per pass attempt. The Falcons’ QB Kirk Cousins went for 10 yards per pass attempt on Sunday in a closer than it should have been 27-21 win. More humiliating blowouts are on the horizon. Jerry Jones has more patience than most NFL owners with his coaches (seriously), but he will not tolerate humiliation. The clock is ticking on McCarthy’s tenure in Big D.