Chicago fans should be worried. So-called franchise QB Caleb Williams cannot see the field. That is what Merrill Hoge told me. He said Williams does not have any pocket presence and does not keep his eyes downfield when pressured and that it is very hard to change a player with those fatal flaws. I think Hoge knows. He played fullback for Pittsburgh until injuries cut his career short. Then he joined with Ron Jaworkski on the best version of ESPN’s NFL Matchup Show. Why Hoge is not on TV anymore is a mystery. The Bears player productivity has been below the Mendoza Line (2.00 player productivity +/-) in both their games. They rank 30th in the NFL in play design differential and it will not get better if Williams does not get his head up and look down the field when he is pressured. Stay tuned.

The AFC North had itself a week. The Bengals won the design battle in Kansas City and were +2 TO. That is almost always a win. But the Chiefs turned the one Cincinnati TO into scoop and score and a killer PI penalty on 4DN kept the Chiefs’ drive to the winning field goal alive. The Browns lost the design battle but won thanks to a late safety that forced Jacksonville to seek a TD instead of a game-tying field goal. The Steelers’ and their Neanderthalic passing game were +2 TO in Denver and the defense made it stand up. It really did not even feel like a close win. The Ravens won the design battle but 109 yards in penalties to visiting Las Vegas’ 15 yards doomed Baltimore to a second straight loss. This division is totally up for grabs.

Carolina is unspeakably awful. Even worse than last year. I am kicking myself for not betting they would lose the most games in the league this year. They might not win even the two games they won last year. It is hard to imagine that anyone else will be within 2 games at the end of the year.

The NFC South looks surprisingly strong after the Saints destroyed Dallas and Tampa Bay held off Detroit. New Orleans cannot keep playing at this level, but I think they are for real. Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield has already thrown 6 TD passes. He is playing like the player the Browns thought they were getting when they made him the overall No. 1 pick in 2018.

Nobody in the NFC East is positively designed after the Eagles collapsed in a 22-21 loss to the Falcons. The Giants (No. 31), Commanders (No. 28), and Eagles (No. 25) all rank in the bottom ten of the league in play design differential. It is early. Philadelphia and Dallas still might reassert themselves. But so far, the division is worse than we expected while the NFC South is better than we expected.