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Beat down on Bourbon Street
Hangovers on Bourbon Street just hit differently. Like how the New Orleans Saints hit the Carolina Panthers in 47-10 beat down in WK 1 of the 2024 NFL season. What were all those so-called “sharps,” including Colin Cowherd, thinking backing the Panthers? It has been 33 years since a rookie HC like Dave Canales taking over a team that won 2 or less games the prior year won in WK1 on the road. The Patriots Dick MacPherson did it in 1991. The last time any new coach did it was Bill Parcells with the Jets in 1996. Teams like the Saints facing such teams and laying 4 points or more were 15-2 SU since 1996. (Jets at Seahawks and 2005 49ers under Mike Nolan won at home vs. Rams.) New Orleans crushed Carolina in the Super Dome last year, 28-6. My number for the 2024 opener in the Super Dome was Saints -8, which meant that even at -2 turnovers it would be a pick ’em game. @joebrennanjr told @PatrickE_Vegas that the Saints were @primesportbook biggest need of the week. (Brennan claims to book sharp action.) MGM also reportedly handled big play on the Panthers. I played the game on @FanDuel at -215 midweek and gave it out to subscribers to QuantCoach’s Eye: The Capitalist’s Sports Newsletter. Money kept coming in on Carolina after I did and pushed the money line to -184 at kickoff. As @broadcastjesse said after the game in reference to Cowherd’s pick, “How any of you guys that watch this stuff have any money left is remarkable to me.”
Watson, Jones, others below the Mendoza Line
Six QBs could not muster player productivity at or above 2.00, the NFL’s “Mendoza Line” (or, as I refer to it, the “JaMarcus Cable”) at which a QB must be replaced: Bears Caleb Williams (1.15), Broncos Bo Nix (1.37), Browns Deshawn Watson, Titans Will Levis (1.47), Giants Daniel Jones (1.61) and Panthers Bryce Young (1.75). It is not a surprise to see first-year QBs like Williams and Nix struggle. John Elway had worse numbers in his debut. Second-year pros like Young and Levis also might continue to develop. But Kevin Stefanski and Brian Daboll will need to pull the rip cord on Watson and Jones quickly to have any chance to continue in their present employment beyond this year.
Kendricks kills Cleveland
Eric Kendricks was a player I loved when he was in Minnesota. Against Cleveland, he had two sacks and interception. He might be the most underrated pickup of the off-season. If he and the rest of the Cowboys’ D stays healthy, it might be Dooms Day again in Big D for opponents.
MacDonald diabolical by design
Seattle HC Mike MacDonald made a successful debut as an NFL coach in a 26-20 win over Denver. His team held Bo Nix to a paltry 3.143 QCYPA. That is even better than the Ravens’ best in the NFL pass coverage (5.328) that MacDonald designed last year as Baltimore’s DC. Everybody who bet early on the Seahawks cashed a ticket but those who jumped in at the end at -6.5 lost because the Broncos defense recorded not just one, but two, safeties.
Bright spot in darkness in Cincinnati
The Bengals are a mess. WR Ja’Marr Chase hates his contract. QB Joe Burrow averaged just 5.31 QCYPA and the Bengals were -2 TO in an embarrassing 16-10 loss to New England. Rookie HC were just 7-22 in their debuts on the road in Week 1 in the last decade. Losses by Carolina’s Canales in New Orleans and Tennessee’s Brian Callahan in Chicago reduced that record to 7-24. But Cincinnati’s incompetence made Jerod Mayo’s debut on the road a winning one. The only bright spot for the Bengals was rookie punter Ryan Rehkow set an NFL record averaging 65.3 yards per punt. It broke the record set by the Raiders A.J. Cole on November 5, 2023, of 63.6 yards (minimum 4 punts).