I am going back to the well that produced my best result of the season, the Packers’ 31-7 wipeout of the Bears at Lambeau Field October 11.

Recall, Chicago was coming off a 23-12 win over the Jets in which Ben Johnson called 54 rushing plays. It was just the sixth time since 2021 that a team rushed the ball 50 or more times.

Counting the Packers win over the Bears, those teams coming off 50 or more rushing attempts are now 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS since 2021. They have lost by an average of 13.6 points per game.

Tampa Bay rushed the ball 56 times last week in a rain-soaked 16-0 win over the Falcons. Quarterback Baker Mayfield did not throw a pass and only dropped back to attempt to pass one time.

Chicago DC Dennis Allen has a stingy run defense. The Bears have seen more than 19 rushing attempts just once since Week 2 and have not allowed more than 81 yards rushing to an opponent since Week 3. New DT Jeffrey Simmons makes the front seven even more stout. Chicago has been torched by deep passes. But the Bucs 5.245 QCYPA is the worst in the NFL and Mayfield, and backup Jalon Daniels, have combined to throw only 5 TD passes all year, never more than one in a game.

Todd Bowles’ team plays excellent defense. They have not given up 100 yards or more on the ground since the opening game at Cincinnati. The pass coverage (6.470 DQCYPA) is good too.

Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams will have their work cut out for them. Chicago is also on short reset coming off a Monday night game. But the game looked like it has slowed down for Williams in the impressive win over the Seahawks, who play defense as well as anybody in the NFL.

I played Bears -6.5 (-108).

While I am waiting all day for Sunday night, I will be on two home underdogs. I like the Panthers +2.5 (Even) against the Broncos and the Commanders +4.5 (-105) against the Rams. Denver was a home dog last week and South Point Casino bookmaker Chris Andrews preaches that playing against a road favorite who was a home dog the prior week is usually a good bet. Carolina QB Bryce Young has been nursing a knee injury, but he says he feels better.

Sean McVay’s Rams have been super spotty. Down one week and up the next. LA’s long injury report got a little longer on Friday when TE Terrance Ferguson went down. The Commanders have turned the ball over only 3 times all year and the pass coverage has looked better since the first three weeks, albeit against some below average quarterbacks. Nobody would list Matt Stafford as below average, but the injury report lists a sore elbow next to his name which might be the result of throwing more than 50 passes three weeks in a row against the Broncos, Eagles, and Bills.