The box score said Buccaneers’ QB Baker Mayfield (thumb) returned to action last week at Carolina, but that is a little misleading.

Baker threw only 11 passes against the Panthers, just 2 in the second half. HC Todd Bowles’ defense put up 9 points in the second quarter and the Buccaneers led at the half 33-6. It is highly unlikely to be so easy again.

In both Tampa Bay’s win, Bucky Irving has run wild and the Bucs have 241 and 258 yards on the ground. The Falcons have defended the run well in all their games except a loss to Baltimore. If Atlanta can slow Irving, Baker will face a secondary that is permitting only 6.654 yards per pass attempt (QCYPA). WR Emeka Egbuka will not play for the second straight week and that will make Baker’s assignment even more difficult.

Speaking of difficult, Falcons RB Bijon Robinson will have work cut out for him against Bowles’ front seven. Tampa Bay’s defense has not given up 100 yards on the ground since the opener in Cincinnati. Nobody has attempted more than 27 rushes against them. That is nasty. Atlanta has run it at least 29 times in their 3 wins, including last week when the 49ers’ offense helped out with 4 turnovers.

Falcons QB Michael Penix tossed 3 TD passes against San Francisco and the week before in a furious comeback against Chicago that fell short. He is streaky. I like him a lot better when he attempts less than 30 passes, but as long as he does not have to throw it 40 times, he can win.

My line independent of turnovers and breakdowns on special teams is Atlanta -2. So, obviously, I like the +2.5 point subsidy.

I also have a unit on the Patriots -7. Miami broke into the win column last week against the Jets. The Dolphins got to the lead, ran the football 41 times, and got a turnover and a missed field goal. I do not think it will go so well against a New England defense that has held up well against the runs except in losses to Jacksonville and the Bears.

Drake Maye threw the ball effectively against Chicago but committed a costly turnover. New York QB Geno Smith took what he wanted against Miami. The Dolphins cannot cover (8.600 QCYPA) or pressure opposing passers (-.297 sack yards per attempt). If Maye avoids turnovers, the Patriots should put up 30 or more points easily and force Miami QB Malik Willis to throw it more than he should.

My number, assuming both teams are solid on special teams, is Patriots -10.