During the first five weeks of the season, teams that have won the play design battle have won almost 80 percent of their games. That is a little too high. I always expect the figure to be around 75 percent.

The Broncos 17-14 win over the Seahawks may be just a taste of upsets to come. Denver lost the design battle by 3.60%, but won the turnover battle by 3.

For this reason, I advise caution backing better designed teams in Week 6, which is usually, but not always, the team that is favored.

The Bears are one of those exceptions. Chicago is a -1.5 favorite in Atlanta. With a -6.30% play design differential, Ben Johnson probably will not out-design the Falcons, who come in with a +3.50% differential. Last year, Chicago was a 6-1 in games in which they lost the design battle. They are 1-0 this year. How does Johnson do it? He runs the ball, especially on first down, which reduces turnovers, and does not put a leash on QB Caleb Williams’ improvisation, especially in Q4. Williams was full practice and should be ready to go. Atlanta already has lost twice in games in which it won the design battle. QB Michael Penix is nursing tender ribs, which might reduce his ability to exploit Chicago’s leaky secondary. The Falcons looked good against the run for four games, then Darrick Henry and the Ravens came to town and hit them for over 200 yards on the ground. That bodes well for the Bears ground game even though it be without Kyle Monangai for a second straight week. Chicago was -5 TO last week in Green Bay. Since 2020, favorites in non-division games off -4 TO or > are 33-8 SU.

I also like the Jets +7.5 and UNDER 43.5 in New England. New York HC Aaron Glenn has his team playing great defense. The Jets are giving up just 5.844 yards per pass attempt and sacking opposing QBs for -.638 yards per pass attempt. Those are great numbers. On offense, QB Geno Smith has been under constant pressure (-.912 yards lost per pass attempt), but he has thrown 6 TD passes and 0 interceptions. He is Geno Smith. That could change quickly. New England superstar DB Christian Gonzalez is expected to play. But the Patriots secondary will be without Carlton Davis III and Karon Prunty. Safety Craig Woodson also is not 100 percent. On offense, LT Will Campbell is doubtful. QB Drake Maye has looked like his 2025 self the last two games vs. Buffalo and Las Vegas. But the Patriots still have turned the ball over 11 times in five games. I am not ready to believe that Mike Vrabel, Josh McDaniels and Maye have completely solved all their problems. Upon such turnovers are upsets built.

Finally, I bagged the Ravens at Cleveland when the line moved to -3 on the news that QB Lamar Jackson will not play. Baltimore with Lamar (+6.68% play design +/-) would hold a decided schematic advantage over the Browns (-0.795). Without him, they will lean on RB Darrick Henry against Cleveland’s beat up front seven. DL Mike Hall is out, and Mason Graham and Derek Barnett are battling ankle and knee injuries that have limited their practice time. Also, LB Carson Schwesinger has been slowed by an ankle injury. New HC Jesse Minter’s defense has been very consistent, holding opponents to 6.606 yards per pass attempt (QCYPA), a vast improvement over 2025. Last week against the Jets, Deshaun Watson averaged just 3.394 QCYPA. The Browns received 10.2 points of help from the officials in New York, but still lost 17-12. Teams off 10+ points of penalty help are 8-21 ATS since 2023.