Vince Lombardi

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WELCOME to QuantCoach.com, the only site on the world-wide web that provides meaningful professional football coaching statistics. QuantCoach.com's revolutionary coaching statistics are derived from a peer-reviewed and generally accepted theory of competition known as Growth Theory. Veteran coach Bill Parcells once said, "If they want you to cook the dinner, at least they ought to let you shop for some of the groceries." But Growth Theory teaches us that success "springs from better recipes, not just from more cooking." In professional football, those "recipes" are the plays that coaches design. Simply, QuantCoach.com's coaching statistics separate the contribution of plays to pro football success from the contribution of players.

THE ARCHIVES (2015-Part 1)

QC's Week 4 Thoughts

After whacking Kansas City 36-21, the Bengals assuredly will become the No. 1 team in play design differential after four weeks of play. The Cincinnati offense is averaging over 30 points per game and every week a different player seems to explode. Against the Chiefs, RB Jeremy Hill got back on track, plowing for 3 TDs. It is still early and QB Andy Dalton has shown before that he can go from looking like the best signal-caller in the NFL to one who makes you scratch your head and think, “How did this guy even make the team?” And some regression is inevitable because no team can sustain productivity at this current level. But even so, it is time for teams to start thinking about OC Hue Jackson again as a possible HC. In his only year as HC in 2011, Jackson’s Raiders finished 8-8 and were in the hunt for the divisional crown until the last week of the season. Jackson is a proven play designer. It is time he got a second chance.

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Miami’s Joe Philbin is another coach who will be looking for a second chance after Miami fired him in the wake of a loss to the NY Jets in London. Philbin seems like a first-class guy and he was a much needed adult in Miami during the Richie Icognito bullying scandal. But Philbin’s team never showed any signs of improvement before the wheels fell off this year. Some team will quickly scoop up Philbin for its staff and it probably will be the better for it. But, at this time, it is hard to see him getting a second chance any time soon. Meanwhile, Dolphins TE coach Dan Campbell becomes the most recent in-season hire to get a chance to make a run at the best coaching performance by an in-season replacement coach ever: 10-0 and the AFL Championship posted by Wally Lemm after he took over the 1-3-1 Oilers in 1961.

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Jacksonville missed a golden chance to establish itself as a playoff contender in a 16-13 OT loss in Indianapolis. Andrew Luck did not play and the Colts were generous to lose the TO battle. The Jaguars were much the better designed and more productive team, but a missed field goal in OT cost them the win. With Luck banged up, a rookie QB in Tennessee, and Houston listing badly without any QB, Jacksonville had a legitimate chance to put itself in position to be a player in the AFC South. Only time will tell if Gus Bradley’s team gets a better opportunity any time soon.

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It is hard to imagine a team could be 4-0 with less offensive firepower than Carolina. Through four weeks, the Panthers have generated meaningful productivity against only the hapless New Orleans defense. But the Panthers are +8 TO through 4 games. An NFL team that is +2 TO in a game is virtually unbeatable. But such turnover production is impossible to sustain. As soon as Carolina’s TO differential prowess comes to an end, Ron Rivera’s club will return to earth, probably with a thud. Still, Carolina plays nasty D so nobody had better take Rivera’s team lightly.

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QC's Week 3 Thoughts

After watching his 49ers get crushed for the second week in row and QB Colin Kaepernick throw 4 picks, including 2 that were returned for TDs in the first quarter, San Francisco owner Jed York must have been really missing his former coach. No, not that one. QC is talking about former SF OC Greg Roman. It was just a few years ago when Kaepernick was coming out of nowhere, using Roman's play designs, and taking the 49ers to the Super Bowl, it seemed Roman was a lock to be a head coach. That all evaporated last year as its so often does and Roman ended up in Buffalo with a cast-off second team QB, Tyrod Taylor. Using Roman's designs, Taylor is averaging over 9.3 QCYPA and has tossed 7 TD passes for the 2-1 Bills. Oh, yeah, York's "other" former employee, coach Khaki Pants, is 3-1 after Michigan smashed BYU 31-0 on Saturday. Good luck Niners fans.

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Question: What happens when an NFL owner scratches his name on the biggest check given to an off-season FA and his new acquisition and his team start slowly? Answer: The HC's wife starts thinking life in a small college town might be nice. So it goes for Miami's Mrs. Joe Philbin. Despite the presence of Ndamukong Suh, the Dolphins have registered just 1 sack through 3 games. After his absorbed a 41-14 drubbing at home from Buffalo, the Joe Philibin watch officially began.

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Chip Kelly and Philadelphia got of the schneid with a 24-17 win over the Jets, but Eagles fans should not be thinking this team has turned the corner. Philadelphia's offensive productivity was below The JaMarcus Cable and the Eagles only prevailed because Ryan Fitpatrick turned back into Ryan Fitzpatrick (3 picks) and Darren Sproles returned a punt for a touchdown. Many people feel Kelly is at a cross-roads. It is too early to reach that conclusion. But the NFL is an environment in which an HC must continuously adapt. NFL DC's have seen enough of Kelly's designs the past two years to have a pretty good feel for how to defend them. The ball is in the Chipster's court. He must come up with something new. And fast.

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Cincinnati's 28-24 win at Baltimore was made even more impressive by the fact that the Bengals lost the turnover battle (2-1), yielded a defensive TD to the Ravens, and were robbed by the officials of a TD. With a 14-0 lead, Cincinnati TE Tyler Eifert caught a pass at the one yard line and stretched the ball across the goal line, but lost it as he came to the ground. Replay officials nullified the score on the basis of the "Dez Bryant Rule." Until Eifert's non-TD, the most black-and-white rule in football was that once a player who has established his position on the field of play breaks the plane of the goal line, a TD is scored and the play is over. But not anymore, it appears. NFL logic continues to be as elusive as Adrian Peterson in the broken field.

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QC's Week 2 Thoughts

One week after Tennessee's Marcus Mariota looked phenomenal, Cleveland's Johnny Manziel and Tampa Bay's Jamies Winston were impressive. What did all of these developing QBs have in common in their winning performances? None of them threw more than 20 passes but all of them averaged more than 9.7 QCYPA and generated infinite productivity. Don't expect such numbers to become the norm. Without both a rock-solid defense AND a bruising running back, no rookie QB can perform consistently. Rather, rookie QBs are as volatile as the stock market has been lately.

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After Washington finished a dismal 2014, ex-GM Bill Polian said on XM NFL Radio that the Redskins needed to forget about the QB position and fix their horrific defense. After master defensive play designer Vic Fangio picked Chicago over Washington and new GM Scott McCloughan's passed on DT Leonard Williams in the draft and added only DT Terrence "What you sayin'?" Knighton and a few lesser known free agents, it did not look like the stop troops would be much better in 2015. But new DC Joe Barry's unit has yielded but 10 points in each of its first two games. With Alfred Morris grinding yards behind a new right side of the offensive line (rookie G Brandon Scherff and T Morgan Moses), Washington may be able to contend in the dicey NFC East if the D continues to overachieve.

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Jacksonville and Oakland have consistently ranked in the 30's in play design the last few years and after Week 1 losses it looked like little would change in 2015. But their young QBs, Blake Bortles and Derek Carr, both played well in upset wins. True, both teams needed a little help from the officials, particularly Carr and the Raiders who benefitted from a defensive holding penalty that negated what would have been a clinching interception by the Ravens Will Hill. But both QBs put up solidly productive numbers against respected defenses. Time will tell if Bortles and Carr are for real and if their teams have turned the corner. Finally.

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Parolee Tom Brady has gotten all the media attention during New England's 2-0 start, but what has caught QC's eye is the Patriots pass pressure. In a win over the Bills in Week 2, the Patriots rush dominated the Bills O-line and obliterated Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor. After refusing to match the astro money the Jets provided to All-Pro DB Darrelle Revis in the off-season, Bill Belichick's secondary looked vulernable entering 2016. But if New England continues to treat opposing passers the way it has treated Taylor and Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger, any deficiencies that may exist in the pass coverage may never come to light.

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QC's Week 1 Thoughts

The leader of the "A Team," John "Hannibal" Smith's catch-phrase was "I love it when a plan comes together." Game plans were coming together all over the NFL Week 1 as teams who posted better play design statistics went 15-1. The only exception was in Washington where Jay Gruden's slightly better designed Redskins fell to Miami on Jarvis Landry's punt return for a TD. So it was a great Week 1 for NFL coaches. On the other hand, it was an awful week for Las Vegas sports book directors. The books took a pounding and this was not the first time this has occurred in tandem with the dominance of the play designers.

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Week 1 also was highlighted by some outstanding play at tight end. Kansas City TE Travis Kelce grabbed 6 passes for 106 yards and 2 TDs in the Chiefs win over Houston. Cincinnati TE Tyler Eifert was even better with 9 catches for 104 yards and 2 TDs. Look for both players to have huge years if they stay healthy.

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Seattle is a team that usually does not have any trouble with its opponent's tight end because safety Kam Chancellor is a tight end eraser. But with Chancellor holding out, St. Louis tight end Jared Cook caught 5 passes for 85 yards. The Seahawks were +2 in the turnover battle and also got a punt return TD from rookie Tyler Lockett. That is enough production to win 95% of all games. But the Seahawks still lost, which suggests they miss Chancellor greatly. Not enough to give in to his contract demands. But greatly.

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Tennessee QB Marcus Marriota looked awesome against Tampa Bay, but he did not have to go against Titans master designer Dick LeBeau. Defenses coordinated by LeBeau are rookie QB hell. Bucs rook Jameis Winston plunged straight in on the first play of the game when his very first NFL pass was picked and returned for a TD. While LeBeau's players were tormenting Winston, New England QB Tom Brady toyed with LeBeau's former Pittsburgh defenders. A few years ago, the Steelers forced out OC Bruce Arians and he has had nothing but success since moving on. For at least one week, history repeated itself on the other side of the ball.

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