THE
ARCHIVES (2010-Part 1)
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2010 Season Week 12 Thoughts
Atlanta took control of the NFC with a 20-17 win over Green Bay. The Falcons
victory was a classic "black swan" win. The Packers were much better
designed and infinitely productive, but, as Sports Illustrated's Peter King
observed, a critical fumble that QB Aaron Rogers lost at the Atlanta 1-yard
line enabled Atlanta to win. For the year, the Falcons are 4-0 in black swan
games (i.e., games they have won despite being outdesigned). The last team to
enjoy such success in black swan games was the 2008 Tennessee Titans, who
finished 5-0 in such games and plus-14 in turnovers on the way to a 13-3
season. Unfortunately, in their first playoff game, they were minus-3 in
turnovers and lost to Baltimore. Atlanta bears some resemblance to that
Tennessee outfit.
**********
Sacks are overrated. In Chicago's 31-26 win over Philadelphia, the Eagles
frequently overran the Bears porous pass protection. For every time QB Jay
Cutler attempted to pass (21 attempts), Chicago on average lost 1.381 yards
(QCAPY) on sacks. But the Bears also averaged over 12 yards per attempt after
figuring in the sacks, were infinitely productive, threw 4 TD passes, and did
not throw a single interception. The sacks just didn't matter as Chicago
dominated the high flying Eagles in a game that was not as close as the final
score indicated.
**********
Cleveland's 24-23 win over Carolina was thisclose. The Browns were 1/625th
better designed than the Panters and 1/100th more productive. Given that
Cleveland also was minus-2 in turnovers, this was a game Carolina should have
won. And the Panthers would have won if the usually reliable John Kasay had not
hit the upright on his last-second, game-winning 42-yard field goal attempt.
One word describes the Browns win: Lucky. Two words describe Cleveland QB Jake
Delhomme: Incredibly lucky. Delhomme is being paid about $12 million for
Carolina (and reciprocated by throwing a pick-6 to the Panthers) and about $7
million by the Browns for his efforts this year. That's more than Peyton
Manning or Tom Brady will make this year. Get QC this man's agent.
*********
The AFC South has collapsed. At the beginning of the year, the Peyton Manning
division looked like the strongest in football. But physical injuries have
devastated Indianapolis. Coach/quarterback (i.e., Jeff Fisher/Vince Young)
animosity and QB injuries have ruined Tennessee. Houston's pass defense has
disappeared. And Jacksonville, who fell to the New York Giants 24-20, cannot
win on luck forever. It has gotten ugly.
**********
The AFC West race between San Diego and Kansas City should be terrific. In
defeating the Colts, 36-14, the Chargers were plus-5 in turnovers and showed
that they could win a game on the road without a huge contribution from the
NFL's most efficient and productive offense. Meanwhile, in a 42-24 rout of
Seattle, the Chiefs showed they can score points in bunches as QB Matt Cassell
and WR Dewayne Bowe combined for 3 TD passes. There are 2 good teams in the AFC
West and while most experts have conceded wild-card spots to the AFC East (New
England and New York Jets) and AFC North (Pittsburgh and Baltimore), it would
not surprise QC too much if the AFC West ended up with one of those wild-card
spots.
(2010 Archives1;
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YOU MAKE THE CALL: TRUE or FALSE
Are sacks the most over-rated statistic in football? (Use Twitter or the
headset to send TRUE or FALSE and your reasons to QuantCoach.
Please let QC know if we may post your tweet/message on The Chalkboard.)
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2010 Season Week 11 Thoughts
"'Type A' quarterbacks are saviors and their coaches are believers;
'Type B' quarterbacks are desciples of their coaches. Importantly, a team can
succeed with either type of coach/quarterback relationship provided that the
relationship between the quarterback and the coach is functional."
QC's 4th
Commandment ("The quarterback is both a play designer and a
play-maker."). Week 11 in the NFL was a brutal week for quarterback/coach
functionality.
**********
For what it's worth, Jeff Fisher, Vince Young is worth saving. On the field,
Young is a highly efficient and productive player who takes care of the ball.
He may have trouble if asked to do too much, but who doesn't? In addition,
Young does not appear to be challenging Fisher, so much as simply disliking
him. QC's advice to Fisher would be call Mike Holmgren. Holmgren's internal
struggle to co-exist in harmony with a frisky Brett Favre are well documented.
If anyone has ridden the emotional roller-coaster of a high maintenance QB to a
successful end, it's Holmgren. There is a reason Fisher has been able to
survive so long with mercurial owner Bud Adams, who in his youth had a quick
trigger finger for firing coaches. There also is a reason that Fisher to date
has only been a plugger and never won the Super Bowl. From QC's outsider
perspective, it appears that Fisher has to grow up as much as Young does.
**********
Speaking of Brett Favre, Brad Childress's inability to manage his Type A QB and
his team simultaneously cost him his job after Green Bay steam-rolled
Minnesota, 31-3. Since late in the 2009 season, it was clear that Favre gave
directions to, rather than took directions from, Childress. That relationship
was fine as long as the Vikings were winning. But since Favre has been a
turnover machine in the expensive risk market of 2010, Minnesota has had very
little chance of winning most Sundays. In order to reign in the turnovers,
Childress had to reign in Favre and that was never going to happen. It's been
tough for Childress, but he showed enough in Minnesota that he should be given
a second chance as a head coach somewhere else. Remember, Bill Belichick went
down in flames in his first coaching job in Cleveland when he could not manage
a popular veteran quarterback (Bernie Kosar) whose power off the field
infinitely exceeded his production on the field. Childresss can coach. QC hopes
he gets a second chance, preferably under less dramatic conditions.
**********
Jack Del Rio's and David Garrard's relationship in Jacksonville has long seemed
like it could (and perhaps should) go dysfunctional any day. Last year, Del Rio
put the kaibosh on Garrard's weekly radio show and publicly stated Garrard
would be better off spending that time studying more film. This year, after
Garrard had a poor performance in San Diego, Del Rio seemed hell-bent on
benching him even if it meant going with Todd Bouman or newly acquired Trent
Edwards as his on-field play designer. But Garrard has soldiered on. On Sunday,
the Jaguars inexplicably defeated Cleveland, 24-20, to inexplicably improve to
6-4 despite being outdesigned and minus-5 in turnovers. For the year,
Jacksonville is minus-11 in turnovers and has the worst pass defense in the NFL
(8.978 D-QCYPA), Del Rio's design realm. Yet, the Jaguars are still tied for
first in the AFC South. Jacksonville's recipe: Add the following: (1) Excellent
play from Garrard against poor pass defenses (Denver, Buffalo, Dallas, &
Houston); (2) Luck (Indianapolis, Houston & Cleveland); (3) All powerful
kicking leg of Josh Scobee (Indianapolis). Not a traditional 6-4 receipe, but
the NFL is a kitchen of mulitiple equlibria even when the coach and his
quarterback may not be functioning at full equilibrium.
(2010 Archives1;
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YOU MAKE THE CALL: TRUE or FALSE
Should Tennessee stick with Vince Young at quarterback? (Use Twitter or the
headset to send TRUE or FALSE and your reasons to QuantCoach.
Please let QC know if we may post your tweet/message on The Chalkboard.)
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2010 Season Week 10 Thoughts
For almost all of the first 10 weeks of the 2010 NFL Season, the teams that
currently have the best records--Patriots (7-2), Jets (7-2), Falcons
(7-2)--have ranked in the middle of league in play design (HA)
differential, QC's foundational statistic for success. What gives?
Consistent with Growth Theory, football is a game of multiple equilibria. An
aggressive alpha strategy in which a team makes its owns success can be
successful, as the Saints and Colts showed last year. But a beta strategy in
which a team takes what it is given also can be successful, as the Patriots,
Jets, and Falcons have demonstrated this year. These teams are 7-1 in
"black swan games," i.e., games in which the better designed team
lost. (In contrast, San Diego--by far the best designed team in the NFL
according to HA--is 1-4 in games where the better designed team lost.)
Here are the critical elements of beta football and how the Patriots, Jets, and
Falcons have excelled in this style of football:
1) AVOID TURNOVERS. The Patriots (+6), Jets (+6), and Falcons (+9) all rank
among the league leaders in turnover margin. A team playing beta football
essentially is waiting for the opponent to beat itself. Hence, the beta team
absolutely cannot beat itself with turnovers. These teams rarely do. In the
only "black swan" game any of them have lost, the Jets were (-3) in
turnovers in a 9-0 loss to the Packers. Alpha football may be able to overcome
turnovers. Beta football cannot.
2) PREVENT RETURN TDs. In a year in which NFL records are being set for kick
and punt returns for touchdowns, these teams have for the most part avoided
such catastrophes and on the rare occasion they have occurred, the catastrophe
has occurred against weak opponents who they have had no trouble out-designing.
The Jets have not yielded a return TD all year and the Patriots only allowed a
kick return to C.J. Spiller of woeful Buffalo (1-8). The Falcons permitted a
block kick return for TD against San Francisco (3-6) and a fumble return for a
TD against Cincinnati (3-6). A late goal line stand also enabled Atlanta to
escape a kick return for a TD by Tampa Bay (6-3).
3) A TYPE "B" QB THAT CAN SEIZE A PLAY, A DRIVE AND, OCCASIONALLY A
GAME. There is no Favrian or Shannahanian drama on any of these teams. Tom
Brady, Matt Ryan, and Mark Sanchez all take directrions from rather than give
directions to, their coach. But all 3 QBs are capable making a design work if
necessary. Everyone has long known that Brady is more than a "system
quarterback," and Ryan has taken over several games late and directed the
Falcons to come-from-behind wins during his 3-year tenure in Atlanta. According
to
Peter King, Sanchez arrived at this level during the
Jets 26-20 OT win over the Browns.
4) HEAD COACHES WHO EMPHASIZE DEFENSIVE DESIGN. Of course, the Patriots Bill
Belichick is the master of masters when it comes to defensive design and the
Jets' Rex Ryan has been praised for last several years for his innovation on
the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons' Mike Smith does not get nearly as
much attention and, concededly, Atlanta's defensive design has been near the
bottom of the NFC all year. But Smith was successful as a defensive coordinator
in Jacksonville before coming to Atlanta and time will tell if his designs
improve.
In summary, because football is a game of multiple equilibria, beta coaches can
be evaluated on a different standard when it comes to play design. Although
much study remains to be done, it appears that beta coaches are successful when
play design differential is around 0, i.e., their design simply balances out
the design of the opponent. Under those circumstances, the players alone
determine the outcome and players with a little less ability that do not make
mistakes are better assets than players with a little more ability that do make
mistakes because in the NFL there is very little difference in the players'
ability to make plays when no design advantage exists and the consequences of
mistakes, primarily turnovers, can be disproportionately large.
**********
Houston and Jacksonville had something in common before their meeting in Week
10: Atrocious pass defense. Going into the encounter, the Texans ranked 31st in
the NFL in D-QCYPA and the Jaguars ranked 32nd, dead last. The game simply
could not have met expectations more precisely. With seconds to go, QBs Matt
Schaub and David Garrard had directed their teams to infinite productivity ($)
and the score was tied, 24-24. On the last play of the game, a Hail Mary pass
that the Jaguars do not even practice, the Houston secondary tipped the ball
right to Jacksonville WR Mike Thomas who literally took two steps into the end
zone for the winning score. Afterwards,
John McClain of the Houston Chronical tweeted,
"The Texans' pass defense is the worst I have seen in more than 30 years
of covering the NFL."
**********
After new Dallas coach Jason Garrett won in his debut as the Cowboys' head
coach in shocking fashion, 33-20 over the New York Giants,
some members of the media credited Garrett's no-nonsense
approach during the week (which included practice in pads) for the
reversal of fortune in Big D. QC is not so sure. It is true that Garrett's
offensive game plan against New York was brilliant. Back-up QB John Kitna
posted QCYPA of 16.091, the best in a single game by any
NFL team this year. But offense has not been the Cowboys problem in 2010,
rather Dallas' 2-7 record is attributable to bad breaks (turnovers, Alex Barron
holding, etc.) and bad pass defense. Against New York, the breaks went Dallas'
way as Eli Manning threw a gruesome interception that Bryan McCann returned 101
yards for a TD and a penalty on the New York offense wiped out a 4th quarter TD
pass that would have made it a 1-score game. Indeed, the game was not much
different than the Cowboys 41-35 loss to the Giants in Week 7 with the
exception that the consequences of New York's mistakes were far more severe in
this encounter. Was this just luck or can Garrett truly be credited for the
better fortune? Only time will tell. But this much is sure. Dallas' pass
defense, which yielded 8.188 D-QCYPA on Sunday, still needs work.
(2010 Archives1;
Archives
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YOU MAKE THE CALL: TRUE or FALSE
Does Houston have the worst pass defense in history? (Use Twitter or the
headset to send TRUE or FALSE and your reasons to QuantCoach.
Please let QC know if we may post your tweet/message on The Chalkboard.)
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2010 Season Week 9 Thoughts
In Week 9, certainty and order took uncertainty and chaos to the wood shed as
better designed/coached teams went 12-1 (.923 winning %). In fact, better
designed/coached teams would have been unbeaten if Atlanta safety Thomas DeCoud
had not stopped Tampa Bay running back LeGarrett Blount on a 4th-and-1 at the
Falcons 2-yard line late in the fourth quarter of a 27-21 win over the
Buccaneers. All over the NFL, play designers were the story. Of course, the
biggest story was Dallas owner Jerry Jones firing his play designer, Wade
Phillips, after the Cowboys absorbed a 45-7 spanking from Green Bay.
**********
Make no mistake: Jones fired Phillips because he suddenly had no confidence in
Phillips' defensive play designs. "One of the things that I always felt
was that his head coaching would have a great benefit from how well his defense
was doing," Jones told the
Dallas Morning News at the press conference in which
he announced Phillips' termination. "I really might not be sitting here if
we had gone and played well against Jacksonville and then gone up in Green Bay
and played lights-out defensively."
In Dallas, the only lights that were out were on the Cowboys' defense. In the
last 3 games, the Giants, Jaguars, and Packers all were infinitely productive
($). Dallas' own players openly suggested that Phillips defensive designs may
have been a large part of the problem. "I think opponents have caught up
with a lot of our stuff," linebacker Bradie James said. "For the most
part, the opposing quarterback is doing a good job identifying what we're
doing," cornerback Terrence Newman said. "Right now, I think it's
pretty simple to pick out where the matchups are, who's blitzing and who's not
blitzing. That makes things a little easier on them."
QC statistics support James and Newman. In Phillips first 3 seasons, in
D-QCYPA, the Cowboys ranked 6th (6.195), 3rd (5.549) and 10th (6.637),
respectivly. In the first and third years, Dallas also had a positive turnover
ratio and posted records of 13-3 and 11-5. The Cowboys finished 9-7 in the
second year despite being -11 in turnovers. Largely on the strength of its
defense, the past 2 years Phillips' teams ranked 2nd and 4th in play design
differential, QC's foundational coaching statistic. All this data strongly
indicated that Phillips was doing an excellent job on the defensive side of the
ball and Jones was completely justified entrusting the Cowboys to his
leadership. Until this year, media criticism was unjustified blather.
But designs, like all ideas, can change in an instant. What was effective last
year might be obsolete this year even if the players are essentially unchanged.
After the debacle against the Packers, Dallas ranks 30th in the NFL in D-QCYPA
(8.312) with only Houston and Jacksonville worse. Combined with an awful -9
turnover margin, QB Tony Romo's injury, and a davastating holding penalty on
tackle Alex Barron that nullified what would have been a win over Washington on
opening night, it is not surprising the Cowboys are 1-7. Will Dallas' defense
get better now that Paul Pasqualoni has been elevated to defensive coordinator?
Well, in 2009, Pasqualoni coordinated a Miami defense that finished 31st in
the NFL in D-QCYPA (8.147).
Yikes.
**********
Late in the fourth quarter against Arizona, it looked like Minnesota's Brad
Childress might be getting ready to share Phillips' fate as the Vikings trailed
the hapless, but incredibly lucky, Cardinals 24-10. (Arizona has scored 8 TDs
on some form of return this year while throwing only 6 TD passes. Luck is the
only explanation for how the Cardinals arrived in Minnesota with a 3-4 record.)
After Brett Favre threw a terrible interception and was stopped on fourth down,
it looked like Minnesota would fall to 2-6 and out of the playoff race. But
nobody is better at desperation than Favre who brought the Vikings back to win
in overtime, 27-24. Don't be fooled. The win does not fix everything in
Minnesota which still has to show that its fearsome pass rush, which returned
against the horrible Cardinals offensive line, is really back. But, as least
for a day, Childress did not have to face the slings and arrows.
**********
After San Diego QB Philip Rivers torched the wretched Houston pass defense for
an astouding 14.348 QCYPA and 4 TDs despite the absence of his 3
best receivers (including TE Antonio Gates), Sports Illustrated's
Peter King wrote that at this point Rivers is his choice for
NFL MVP despite the Chargers 4-5 record. Players on losing teams
have won MVPs in baseball (Andre Dawson, Cubs) and in college football (Paul
Hornung, Notre Dame, Heisman Trophy), so why not in the NFL. But QC will go
King one better. Despite San Diego's losing record, Norv Turner is QC's Coach
of the Year ("COY") at the halfway point of the season. Who do you
think designed those plays for Rivers? While it is possible that Rivers could
win the MVP even if the Chargers finish with a losing record (if he breaks Dan
Marino's single-season yardage record), here are the chances of Turner or any
other coach winning COY under the same circumstances: 0%.
**********
Speaking of COY candidates, at the halfway point the leading candidates for the
award with the media probably are Kansas City's Todd Haley (for resurrecting
the Chiefs) and New England's Bill Belichick (for having the best record in the
NFL with a virtually new roster). Kansas City and New England both have
succeeded in 2009 by excelling on special teams and avoiding turnovers. On
Sunday, they got a taste of randomness from the other side. In the Chiefs 23-20
overtime loss to Oakland, Kansas City lost 3 points in regulation when a
holding penalty wiped out a field goal and also yielded a kickoff return for a
TD to the Raiders' Jacoby Ford. In the Patriots' loss to the Browns, a failure
to field a kickoff set up Cleveland's first TD and a fumble by TE Rob
Gronkowski enabled the Browns to hold a 17-7, rather than 17-14, halftime
edge.
**********
In Cleveland's 34-14 win over the Patriots, coach Eric Mangini utilized some
extremely innovative play calls for the second game in a row. QC's question:
Why didn't the Browns employ such innovation right out of the gate? In 2009,
Cleveland won its last 4 games essentially without a QB by using Josh Cribbs
and other runners creatively. After signing dual threat Seneca Wallace in the
off-season, it seemed Cleveland was poised to pair him with Cribbs and show the
NFL something it had never seen on offense. But then the Browns signed Jake
Delhomme and started 2010 with the same old, same old. Submerged at 1-5 and
with the season virtually over, the Browns now have turned back to innovation.
Wonder what the record would be if they hadn't waited so long.
**********
After a 27-21 loss to Pittsburgh left Cincinnati with a 2-6 record, Bengals
fans had to be wondering if it was time for owner Mike Brown to sack coach
Marvin Lewis, blow up the team, and start over. It isn't. When viewed through
QC's coaching statistics, Cincinnati is only a little less productive than they
were in 2009 when they won the division with a 10-6 record. Like this year,
QC's statistics suggested the Bengals were really about a .500 team last year
that beneifitted from some timely turnovers, particularly a pick-6 that the
Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger threw in the first meeting between the teams that
sparked Cincinnati's come-from-behind victory. This year, the turnovers and
other mistakes again have been timely, only this time they have cost the
Bengals 2 games (Cleveland and Tampa Bay) and not delivered any victories. With
a rejuvenated Terrell Owens and good-looking rookie TE Jermaine Gresham in the
fold, Cincinnati fans expected the offense to take a step forward, but it has
not. But sometimes all one needs in the NFL is patience. That is QC's
prescription for Bengals' fans.
(2010 Archives1;
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YOU MAKE THE CALL: TRUE or FALSE
Will Jerry Jones replacing Wade Phillips as head coach/defensive coordinator of
Cowboys mae the team better? (Use Twitter or the headset to send TRUE or
FALSE and your reasons to QuantCoach. Please let QC know if we may post
your tweet/message on The Chalkboard.)
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2010 Season Week 8 Thoughts
One week after turning the ball over 65 times in 13 games (5 turnovers per
game), the market for risk in the NFL plunged more than 40% as teams cut their
turnovers to 37 in 13 games (less than 3 per game). While many of the games in
Week 8 may not have scored many style points, better designed teams returned to
form and won 10 of 13 games and in two of the losses, Tennessee and Washington
were just barely out-designed, led for much of the game and had a chance to win
with 2 minutes to go.
**********
A year ago, Kansas City (5-2), Tampa Bay (5-2) and St. Louis (4-4) were
struggling mightily with rookie head coaches (Todd Haley, Raheem Morris, and
Steve Spagnuoulo). Now, all three are in the playoff hunt. The Chiefs have been
re-made in the image and likeness of New England and the Rams are applying good
pressure on opposing passers and have a diamond in the rough in QB Sam
Bradford. The Bucs record is probably a bit inflated by their +8 turnover
margin and still have to find a pass rush. Although Detroit is only 2-5, coach
Jim Schwartz's Lions have gotten better every week (except Week 4 against Green
Bay and Aaron Rogers).
**********
In the Redskins loss to Detroit, Washington looked to be in great shape late in
the fourth quarter as it played solid, turnover-free beta football. Then QB
Donovan McNabb threw an awful interception that led to Detroit taking the lead.
After Washington's next possession ended on fourth down when McNabb was sacked
and the Lions added a field goal to take an 8-point lead with 2 minutes to
play, coach Mike Shanahan yanked McNabb and inserted Rex Grossman. Detroit
welcomed Grossman with a sack that resulted in a fumble that Ndamakong Suh
returned for a TD. It is hard to imagine a bigger fourth quarter melt-down.
Afterwards, Shanahan strugged mightily with coach-speak to try to explain
giving McNabb the hook. He should have just said, "That interception was
terrible and I was so mad I could not see straight. But it's just a snap-shot
in time. In hindsight, I probably should have left him in. But Donovan is a pro
and I am sure he understands." Instead, Shanahan made a bad situation into
a pro-longed soap opera with his babbling gibberish.
**********
After Indianapolis whipped Houston on Monday Night Football and TE Jacob Tamme
grabbed 6 Peyton Manning passes, including one for a TD, most observers
appeared ready to assume the Colts would not miss injured TE Dallas Clark much.
Don't believe it. While Tamme may have looked like Clark while he was catching
the ball, the Colts offense (which also was missing WR Austin Collie and RB Joe
Addai) did not look much like itself when he wasn't catching passes. Indy came
into the game averaging almost 8 QCYPA, but against the Texans' hapless pass
defense, they averaged only 6.2 QCYPA. That's a big difference. As QC has often
said, Clark's value goes way beyond simply catching passes. In fact, Clark's
value is greatest when he is not catching passes, but creating voids for
Collie, Reggie Wayne, and Pierre Garcón. In 2006, the Colts lost Clark
in December and lost of 3 out of 4 games. When he returned, Indy ran the
playoff table and captured its only Super Bowl. QC will have to see more
evidence to conclude that the Colts have not lost anything with Tamme subbing
for Clark.
**********
Pop quiz: Which group of QBs would you rather have? GROUP A: Peyton Manning,
Aaron Rogers, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer. GROUP B: Troy Smith, Jason
Campbell, Josh Freeman, David Garrard. On Sunday, it was Group B as every
passer in the latter group posted QCYPA greater than 10, directed their
offenses to infinite productivity ($), and finished 4-0. The former group
finished 2-2 as no QB had QCYPA better than Manning's below-average 6.2.
Sometimes, football is a strange game, even when it goes as designed.
(2010 Archives1;
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YOU MAKE THE CALL: TRUE or FALSE
Did Mike Shannahan make a mistake in pulling Donovan McNabb against the Lions?
(Use Twitter or the headset to send TRUE or FALSE and your
reasons to QuantCoach. Please let QC know if we may post your tweet/message on
The Chalkboard.)
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2010 Season Week 7 Thoughts
We now know that the price of risk in the NFL in 2010 has increased
dramatically from 2009. The price peaked in Week 7 when NFL defenses returned 9
interceptions (plus a fumble and a punt) for TDs, the most for a single Sunday
since 1950 according to the NFL Network's Jason LaCanfora. For the year, better
designed teams have won 8 less games than the 75% of all games that QC expects
better designed teams to win. In other words, better designed teams are losing
about 1 game per week that they probably should be winnning.
At this time last year, Indianapolis and New Orleans were unbeaten and in the
middle of what would be 14-game and 13-game win streaks respectively. San Diego
was in the early stages of what would become an 11-game win streak to close the
season. In other words, for long stretches of 2009, the Colts, Saints, and
Chargers were dominant and unbeatable.
The reason these teams enjoyed long periods of unbeaten dominance is two-fold.
First, each possessed an alpha offensive designer: quarterbak Peyton Mannning
and coaches Sean Payton and Norv Turner. Second, the price of risk was low as
demonstrated by the fact that
Indy (+2), New Orleans (+9), and San Diego (+8) all
received more turnovers than they distributed.
What a difference a year makes. While the Colts and Manning are still in the
black (+1), New Orleans (-5) and San Diego (-7) have been devastated by
turnovers, such as on Sunday when Saints' QB Drew Brees threw 4 interceptions,
including two that Cleveland linebacker David Bowens returned for TDs. The
Chargers likewise finished minus-4 in turnovers in a 23-20 loss to New
England.
On Sirius NFL Radio on Monday, New Orleans' Payton all but acknowledged that he
may be buying too much risk with his designs when he said he would be looking
at "reducing" what the Saints do on offense. Such talk is music to
the ears of NFL defensive coordinators. As Ron Jaworski often pointed out last
year, what made New Orleans special in 2009 was its play design. If Payton and
other alpha play designers not willing to pay the current market price for
risk, an advantage swings to teams that play "beta football," which
is characterized by a combination of avoiding turnovers, solid special teams,
and running the football.
**********
Atlanta and QB Matt Ryan had their best game of the year in a 39-32 win over
Cincinnati. For the year, the Falcons offensive productivity (3.60) has been
nothing special and their pass defense (7.821) has been the worst in the NFC.
Atlanta came into the game 5-2 because it was +6 in turnovers and two of its
opponents, New Orleans and San Francisco, beat themselves. But against the
Bengals, Ryan and WR Roddy White were infinitely productive. If the Falcons can
imrove their offensive productivity and reduce their opponent's productivity,
they could be a factor. If not, their season will end when they stop receiving
giveaways.
**********
No team is better at beta football than a Bill Belichick coached team. Indeed,
Belichick's signature win, the 20-17 Super Bowl triumph over the Rams, was a
classic beta victory in which the Patriots were +3 turnovers, including Ty
Law's pick-6, and ran the ball just enough to drain the clock. In beta
football, where risk is very expensive, WR Randy Moss is not nearly as valuable
as he is in a market where risk is cheap. In this market, New England's dealing
Moss to Minnesota is a cagey trade. However, New England's pass defense
(D-QCYPA 7.646) is a liability. Like Atlanta, if the Patriots do not shore up
that area, their season will end when they stop receiving giveaways.
**********
The outlook is bleak in Minnesota. In the cheap-risk market of 2009, QB Brett
Favre, who has never met a risk he would not buy, had a career year. In the
expensive-risk market of 2010, Favre is a huge liability. Now the Vikings have
added Moss, demonstrating that they really do not have a clue that the market
has changed dramatically. Favre limped off the field after Minnesota's 28-24
loss to Green Bay. While QC never wants to see anyone injured and, personally,
loves watching Favre's throw both caution and common sense to the wind style,
the best thing that could happen to Minnesota is if Favre cannot go and coach
Brad Childress has an excuse to reign in his offense's purchase of risk (i.e.,
gambling).
**********
Some teams never adjust to change in the price of risk. Chicago looks like such
a team. With Jay Cutler executing Mike Martz's offense, which is still very
similar to the offense Belichick beat with beta football in the Super Bowl, the
Bears melted down in a 17-14 loss to Washington. Chicago committed 6 turnovers
as Redskins' DB DeAngelo Hall recorded 4 intereptions, including one that he
returned more than 90 yards for the winning score. Change is difficult for
everyone and especially difficult for men with wills strong enough to be NFL
coaches. Perhaps, some can change as Payton has indicated he needs to do. Very,
very few, like Belichick, adapt quickly and pro-actively. Many, like Martz and
San Diego's Norv Turner, can only buy risk at alpha speed and simply cannot
change. At least so far in 2010, the inability to change has proven very
costly.
(2010 Archives1;
Archives
Home)
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YOU MAKE THE CALL: TRUE or FALSE
Can Minnesota recover and make the playoffs? (Use Twitter or the headset to
send TRUE or FALSE and your reasons to QuantCoach. Please let QC
know if we may post your tweet/message on The Chalkboard.)
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2010 Season Week 6 Thoughts
Unlike 2009, the 2010 NFL Season is shaping up as one of those years where the
best designed and most productive teams (San Diego and New York Giants) are
unpredictable because of turnovers and special teams breakdowns and teams that
receive lots of help from the opposition (Atlanta and New York Jets) do not
have the design and player productivity differentials that characterize a
dominant team. In Week 6, however, a few teams emerged as perhaps the most
balanced in the league.
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With QB Ben Roethlisberger back at the controls in Pittsburgh, the Steelers'
offense was infinitely productive ($) in a 28-10 beat-down of Cleveland.
Pittsburgh is playing solid defense, although not on the level of the 2008
Super Bowl champions and is plus-9 in turnovers. Pittsburgh now enjoys the
largest play design differential in the AFC (.0455) and that number may get
better as Roethlisberger showed no signs of diminished production.
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In the NFC, Philadelphia's Kevin Kolb riddled Atlanta in the Eagles surprising
domination, 31-17, of Atlanta. Kolb's QCYPA of 12.069 was spectacular and
Philadelphia was infinitely ($) productive on offense. The Eagles have the
second best play design in the NFC (.0479) and also are an NFC best plus-8 in
turnovers. An All-Pennsylvania Super Bowl (Pittsburgh v. Philadelphia)
certainly would be interesting.
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St. Louis coach Steve Spagnuolo is doing something special with the Rams'
defense. In a 20-17 win over San Diego, St. Louis held the previously
infinitely productive Chargers offense to 5.892 QCYPA and 2.54 player
productivity. Make no mistake: Self-destructive San Diego did not lose this
game like it had in its previous 3 defeats; the Rams won the game. Look for the
NFC West to turn into a 2 team race between St. Louis and Seattle with the Rams
and rookie QB Sam Bradford having the brighter long-term outlook.
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Don't get too high on New England or fall in love with Deion Branch. Going into
their game with Baltimore, the Patriots had benefitted from some outstanding
positive special teams play, which is almost impossible to sustain. In its
23-20 overtime win over the Ravens, New England special teams came through
again. This time it was punter Zoltan Mesko. According to QC's stats, there is
no explanation as to how the Patriots won this game. Baltimore was far more
productive (7.08 to 2.89) and plus-2 in turnovers. However, QB Tom Brady led a
late New England rally that forced overtime. In OT, according to
advancednflstats.com, Mesko launched a 65-yard punt
that flipped the field and changed the Patriots chances of winning from 33% to
54%. Mesko's punt, as much as anything, explains the win. QC doesn't have a
better explanation.
(2010 Archives1;
Archives
Home)
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YOU MAKE THE
CALL: TRUE or FALSE
With Ben Roethlisberger back at QB, is Pittsburgh the best team in the NFL?
(Use Twitter or the headset to send TRUE or FALSE and your
reasons to QuantCoach. Please let QC know if we may post your tweet/message on
The Chalkboard.)
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