THE CHALKBOARD
Super Bowl 54
Preview
Super Bowl 54 is a play-designer's delight, a game that would warm the heart of
legendary Sports Illustrated pro football scribe Paul "Dr. Z"
Zimmerman.
On one side, Kyle Shannahan's 49ers posted a regular season play design
differential of +8.41% (.0841), which is the best regular season figure since
QC invented and began tracking play design differential in 2008. Until San
Francisco came along this year, the +8.21% (.0821) Seattle Seahawks of 2013
were the best designed team QC ever documented. In the Super Bowl that year,
Pete Carroll's team annihilated a record-setting, media and public darling QB
(P-Rex Manning), 43-8. There is one player on the 49ers who also played on
Seattle, a less-flamboyant but still capable Richard Sherman. Hmmmm.
But Andy Reid's +5.54% (.0554) Chiefs are not chopped liver when it comes to
play design. As the table below shows, Kansas City's play design would rank No.
8 of the 24 Super Bowl participants since 2008.
Super Bowl
|
Better Designed
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Worse Designed
|
54
|
49ers (+.0841)
|
Chiefs (+.0554)
|
53
|
Patriots (+.0294), W 13-3
|
Rams (+.0237)
|
52
|
Patriots (+.0252)
|
Eagles (+.0250), W 42-33
|
51
|
Falcons (+.0746)
|
Patriots (+.0481), W 34-28 OT
|
50
|
Panthers (+.0515)
|
Broncos (+.0282), W 24-10
|
49
|
Seahawks (+.0414)
|
Patriots (+.0065), W 28-24
|
48
|
Seahawks (+.0821), W 42-8
|
Broncos (+.0520)
|
47
|
49ers (+.0621)
|
Ravens (+.0073), W 34-31
|
46
|
Giants (+.0330), W 21-17
|
Patriots (+.0272)
|
45
|
Packers (+.0587), W 31-25
|
Steelers (+.0574)
|
44
|
Colts (+.0564)
|
Saints (+.0534), W 31-17
|
43
|
Steelers (+.0577), W 28-23
|
Cardinals (+.0109)
|
When these teams met in
Week 3 of 2018, the Chiefs jumped to a 35-7 lead on their way to a 38-27 win.
At that time, Reid had designed the most diabolical offense since Bill Walsh
gifted Mike Holmgren the 1989 49ers. That San Francisco team 30 years ago--the
best designed team in NFL history by coaching statistics--was incredibly
versatile primarily because Roger Craig (who should be in the HOF) was a
breakaway runner, a power runner, and a splendid receiver who could run wide
receiver routes. In Kareem Hunt, Reid had found a Craig clone (ask Bill
Belichick) and with QB Pat Mahomes' rocket arm and improvisational skill,
Kansas City was as lethal as any offense in NFL history.
But Reid no longer has Hunt and has (unsurprisingly) not found a replacement.
While the Chiefs remain potent and capable of points explosions, the design is
just not as complete as it was when Hunt was in the lineup.
San Francisco DC Robert Saleh may be able keep Mahomes reasonably contained if
he and edge rushers Nick Bosa and Dee Ford are content to make a living rather
than trying to get rich. The 49ers pass rush sacked opposing QBs for -.707
yards per pass attempt. That's a huge number.
Master researcher Chase Stewart published data indicating NFL offenses are hurt
more by sacks than interceptions as sack rates in 2019 increased over 2018
rates while interception rates declined. But neither sacks nor interceptions
hurt Kansas City much in 2019. And Mahomes killed Houston and Tennessee in the
AFC playoffs with his running. The 49ers' odds of winning will increase if Bosa
and Ford contain Mahomes and force him to step up in the pocket into tall
interior pass rushers DeForest Buckner and Arik Amstead.
But QC speculates Saleh and his troops will not be able to do so, at least not
on a handful of high leverage plays. The Super Bowl is longer and more
emotionally draining than a normal NFL game (according to Belichick) and pass
rush tends to wilt late in the game.
Chiefs' DC Steve Spagnuolo is likely to have just as much trouble designing to
stop Shannahan, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, TE George Kittle, WB Deebo Samuel, and all
the other interchangeable parts that make up the 49ers' offense. As QC pointed
out three years ago when Shannahan's Atlanta offense faced Belichick and the
Patriots, the problem in designing to stop Shannahan is that his offense as no
"regulator." That is there is no single vulnerable offensive
component that if disrupted will result in the attack crashing and burning. In
2007, Spagnuolo found such a vulnerability in the unbeaten Patriots' attack and
exploited it by putting DE Justin Tuck over New England center Dan Koppen and
rushing Tom Brady up the middle. But Shannahan's offense make stars out of
players like Kittle and FB Kyle Juszczyk. Spagnuolo simply cannot choke off the
49ers at one point.
In addition, Shannahan seems like he has learned from the Falcons embarrassing
Super Bowl melt-down against the Patriots. In that game, Shannahan relentlessly
called slow-developing, risky deep pass plays and Patriots' sacks of Matt Ryan
(here's looking at you Chase Stewart) ultimately led to Atlanta's implosion. In
contrast, in the NFC Championship Game against Green Bay, Shannhan called runs
and much safer short passes after San Francisco built up an enormous lead.
Still, according to Chase Stewart's recent research, the 49ers lose about twice
as many expected points to sacks and interceptions as the Chiefs lose. In a
design battle at this level, those small differences are likely to be critical.
Consequently, QC expects the Chiefs to win a close game and Mahomes to claim
Super Bowl MVP. (Hedge your Mahomes position with a bet on Garoppolo for MVP
that will cover your Mahomes MVP investment because in a game where design will
be dominant it is almost a sure thing that a QB will be the MVP.)
QC can give out one guarantee: One HC is going to redeem himself and
cement his legacy in this game.
Either Andy Reid will redeem his past post-season shortfalls and cement his
place in the Pro Football HOF. (He is already in if QC gets a vote). Or Kyle
Shannahan will redeem his Super Bowl 51 collapse and stamp himself as the
preeminent play designer in the NFL today. It should be close. QC's coaching
statistics suggest San Francisco should be a 1-point or 1.5-point favorite.
(Kansas City has been hovering around a 1-point to 1.5-point favorite since
betting stabilized after the conference championship games.)
The guess here is this is Andy Reid's moment.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs SU and ATS.
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