THE CHALKBOARD
Week 3: QC's Best Bets
This Week 3 card is like no other card QC can ever remember. It
presents a couple unusual opportunities to "bet like a banker."
Typically, by Week 3, bookmakers are installing better desgined teams as
favorites in about 75-80% of all games. But the better designed teams are only
favorites in half the games this Week 3. Perhaps that is because better
designed teams hav only won 63% of all games (disregarding ties). Better
designed teams usually start much quicker than that and frequently win at an
80% of better clip in the first two weeks. Perhaps the epidemic of kicking
miscues is the reason. In any event, QC has some never-before-seen-here plays
to consider.
1. PARLAY: Jaguars -7 over Titans and UNDER 39.5
Tennesse swept Jacksonville last year, but from the way the Jaguars played this
looks like a more mature team. QB Blake Bortles has become confident enough to
patiently let the game come to him. Against New England, he targeted RBs and
TEs on 19 throws and methodically took Bill Belichick's defense apart. RB Corey
Grant has developed into one of the NFL's top out-of-the-backfield pass
catchers and Tennessee's pass coverage has been awful (9.123 QCYPA).
Defensively, Jacksonville should be able to control the Titans even if banged
up QB Marcus Mariota makes a go of it. Even with (mostly) Mariota at QB,
Tennessee is 2-6-1 ATS since the beginning of 2016. Take away DB Kevin Byard's
66-yard TD pass against Houston and Tennessee's QCYPA is 5.712. Further, the
Titans also have a kickoff return TD this year, which means their offense is
averaging just 13 points per game. Now it faces what might be the best D in the
NFL (or at least the AFC). The Jaguars need to be solid in the kicking game and
not give up any cheap points on returns or fake punts. But if Jacksonville is
alert, it should be able to pound a win. Something like 20-7 sounds about
right.
2. OVER 41.5: Texans vs. NY Giants
The Giants' offensive line and QB Eli Manning are getting ripped for their
performances the first two weeks of the season. Don't overreact. New York faced
what might be the two best defenses in the NFL in Jacksonville and Dallas. The
G-men did not thrive, but they hung in there. If not for a pick-6 Week 1 and a
long pass to Tavon Austin Week 2, New York might be 2-0, not 0-2. Sometimes the
difference between failure and success is that thin. Houston's defense looks
good on paper, but so far the Texans pass coverage has been pretty soft (8.066
D-QCYPA). There is plenty of explosive playmaking on both sides just waiting to
go off in Odell Beckham and Saquon Barkley on the New York side and DeShaun
Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Will Fuller on the Houston side. In addition, both
Manning and Watson have potential to turn the ball over 2 or 3 times in any
game. And TOs lead to points. With both teams 0-2 SU and ATS, it seem risky to
get involved with the side. The OVER feels like the safest play here.
3. Chiefs -6 (at the open) over 49ers
Kansas City is 11.89% better designed than its opponents despite playing both
games on the road. OC Eric Bienemy is doing a fabulous job designing plays for
young gun QB Pat Mahomes, who has an amazing collection of weapons. Since 2009,
teams that are 10% better designed than their opponents entering Week 3 are 9-1
SU and 8-1-1 ATS. Only the 2012 Eagles, who committed 9 TOs in their first two
games and later collapsed and finished 4-12, failed to cover. That collapse
cost Andy Reid his job in Philadelphia. But it is highly unlikel it will happen
again to Reid now. The Chiefs have the same machine like look as the 1984
Dolphins of Dan Marino and the 2011 Packers of Aaron Rogers, who combined were
29-3 in the regular season. San Francisco HC Kyle Shannahan is a marvelous play
designer and Jimmy Garoppolo has been hanging in there despite poor pass
protection (-1.254 sack yards lost per pass attempt). But Shanny and Jimmy G
just don't have the juice to keep up with KC. The 49ers No. 1 WR, Pierre
Garcon, might be No. 5 on the Chiefs. The Kansas City faithful has been
watching the fireworks on TV for two weeks and should be wildly out of control
for their first opportunity for a live show. (Note: The -6 open has now moved
to -6.5 and probably will move further against the Chiefs by kickoff so don't
wait.)
4. Rams ML (-320) over Chargers and
5. Chargers +7 over Rams
This is an intriguing game. Essentially, both teams are at home (or maybe there
is no home team) so there should be no home field advantage for either team.
The Rams have not given up a point for 6 quarters and obliterated Arizona last
week, 34-0, and public perception of their greatness could not be higher. HC
Sean McVay's team is 10.21% better designed that its opponets, so it qualifies
for the same trend as the Chiefs. But the Chargers are potentially a lot better
than a 7-point subsidy suggests. In 18 games under HC Anthony Lynn and DC Gus
Bradley, they have failed to cover 7 points just 3 times (all in 2017) : twice
against Kansas City (at -7 TO) and at New England (at -1 TO). In 2018,
Chargers' QB Phil Rivers has been outstanding (9.205) and actually more
productive than Rams' QB Jared Goff (9.185 QCYPA). If Rivers can avoid
turnovers, they should be able to stay connected. Further, if the Chargers can
strike early and go to the lead, McVay has been known to abandon Todd Gurley
and the running game and it could get a lot harder for Goff, especially because
the Chargers have some pass rush even without Joey Bosa. The Rams' money line
is expensive, but you can hedge against the risk by also taking the Chargers
and the points, which creates a creative opportunity for a synthetic middle
(Rams win, but by less than 7 points). A wager of $320 on the Rams' ML and $352
on the Chargers +7: (a) gains exposure to a 62.5% profit if the Rams win by
less than 7; (b) gains exposure to 14.9% profit if the Rams win by exactly 7;
(c) reduces the risk of a Chargers victory to $0; (d) and will cost $252 (not
$352) if the Rams win by more than 7 because you will receive a $100 profit on
the Rams' ML. In other words, you can structure this bet so that the only way
you can lose money is if the Rams win by 8 or more points, and even if that
happens you will lose about 21% to 28% less money than if you nakedly bet the
Rams to win on the money line or bet $352 on the Chargers +7 .
6. Cardinals +6 over Bears and
7. UNDER 38 (no parlay)
Arizona has been so unspeakably bad on offense in 2018 that K Phil Dawson has
yet to attempt a field goal or a PAT. The Cardinals have been able to get close
enough to the goal line for an attempt only one time and on that occasion they
were already so far behind they went for a 2-point PAT. Doh! But, as the Bears
know, such offensive ineptitude does not mean winning is impossible. After all,
in 2017, Chicago defeated Carolina 17-3 despite QB Mitch Trubisky completing
just 4 passes and the Bears generating just 5 first downs. Trubisky has been
very shaky in 2018, as demonstrated by his 5.217 QCYPA and Chicago's 2.12
player productivity. And Arizona still should be able to play good defense,
especially at home. OC Mike McCoy needs to get RB David Johnson going in both
the running and the passing game. That will be tough against Khalil Mack and
company. But the Bears secondary has given up some big plays. If McCoy loosens
up a little and lets QB Sam Bradford try some deeper throws to Larry Fitzgerald
and Christian Kirk, he might hit a shot or two. The Cardinals enter the game a
dreaful -18.38% worse designed than their opponets. But since 2009, teams
entering Week 3 that are at least 10% worse designed than their opponets are
7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS and have stayed within 6 points or less 9 times (82%).
Further, matchups like this have stayed under 37.5 points 8 times in those 11
games. If you disregard the two games involving the high scoring Saints, 8 of
the remaining 9 games have stayed under 37.5. Only the Colts 31-28 win over the
Browns in 2017 is the exception. Combined the Bears (16.5 points per game on
offense) and the Cardinals (3 points per game on offense) are averaging just
19.5 points per game on offense (Chicago's D has scored 14 points). Arizona has
been terribly inefficient and unproductive, but it has committed only 3
turnovers in its losses, the same as Chicago, so it is unlikely that one team
or the other will enjoy a big turnover margin. If neither team gets points from
its defense or special teams, it is hard to see how this game gets beyond the
low 30s. Further, QC is 4-0 to the under and the only single snap in any of
those games on which theoretically a game could have gone over was the Bears'
victory formation kneel down against Seattle on Week 2 MNF. In other words, the
unders so far have been no sweat. If McCoy and Bradford cannot generate at
least a few big plays, the UNDER can serve as a potential insurance policy
here.
Last Week: 4-2
Season: 9-3-1
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