THE CHALKBOARD
Ranking the 2014 NFL
Head Coaches
Like the 32 NFL coaches that are emerging from their off-season laboratories
for the start of training camp, the QuantCoach is emerging from his off-season
laboratory.
For the first time ever, that lab work included ranking the NFL head coaches
from number one to number thirty-two.
These rankings are completely objective and based entirely on coaching
statistics. Each coach was numerically ranked according to his average play
design differential rank (Ha +/-) and average play design differential rank (TO
+/-). His numerical ranking in each category was then summed to obtain a total
numerical score. The lower his total numerical score, the better his final
ranking. The best possible numerical score is "2." The worst possible
numerical score is Ken Whisenhunt.
Like a financial balance sheet, the rankings are a snapshot in time.
The rankings are based solely on NFL games. College games, such as those
coached by Chip Kelly, are not included. Up to the last 80 games (5 years) of a
coach are included. If a current head coach was an offensive or defensive
coordinator during some of those games prior to becoming a head coach, the
games are still included in the calculation, although only games as a head
coach are listed in the "GMs" column of the rankings table. As a
result, the position of some head coaches in the rankings--e.g., Joe Philbin
and Bill O'Brien--is likely to change, perhaps dramatically, as data from their
tenure assisting successful head coaches drops out of the calculation and is
replaced by data generated during their tenure as a head coach. In such cases,
the rankings should NOT be interpreted to mean the former
assistant of a successful head coach is a better head coach than a head coach
who is ranked based only on his data as a head coach--e.g., Pete Carroll and
Sean Payton.
The contribution of critical assistant coaches is not separated in the data.
For instance, Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin ranked first in play design
differential and former Steelers' offensive coordinator Bruce Arians, now
Arizona's head coach, ranked fifth in that category. Undoubtedly, their
positions in the rankings have been bolstered by the outstanding design of
Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau.
For NFL head coaches who have been in the position for at least 48 games (3
years), the following conclusions are supportable:
1. A head coach with a final score under 30 is a keeper. There are 12 such
coaches, the same number as the number of teams that qualify for the NFL
playoffs. Six of those 12 coaches (50%) have led their team to a Super Bowl
win. Among the other 20 current NFL coaches, only the Giants' Tom Coughlin has
led a team to a Super Bowl win (5%). The top 12 NFL coaches have won a total of
eight Lombardi Trophies and are a combined 8-2 in the Super Bowl (.800) while
Couglin's pair is the only Lombardi Trophies won by the other 20 coaches, who
are a combined 2-6 in the Super Bowl (.250).
2. A head coach with a score between 31 and 40 is serviceable. These coaches
like Coughlin, Lovie Smith, Marvin Lewis and Andy Reid win a lot of regular
season games and division titles and occasionally advance to the Super Bowl.
But, as stated above, only Coughlin has hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.
3. A head coach with a score above 40 is either: (a) a first or second year
head coach who took over a declining or bad team; or (b) on the "hot
seat" or likely will be soon unless he is lucky enough to have Peyton
Manning as his quarterback; or (c) is named Jeff Fisher, who is usually good
against the point spread, but just so-so on the field.
Rank
|
Coach
|
Team
|
GMs
|
Ha +/-
|
TO +/-
|
Total
|
Comment
|
1.
|
Kelly
|
Phil
|
16
|
2
|
5
|
7
|
You say you want a revolution?
|
2T.
|
McCarthy
|
GB
|
80
|
4
|
4
|
8
|
He's Jim Harbaugh plus a few years.
|
| 2T. |
Harbaugh
|
SF
|
48
|
6
|
2
|
8
|
He's Mike McCarthy minus a few years.
|
4.
|
Belichick
|
NE
|
80
|
12
|
1
|
13
|
He is "Grand Master No Flash."
|
5T.
|
O'Brien
|
Hou
|
0
|
11
|
3
|
14
|
Romeo, Mangini, Josh didn't fare well as HC.
|
5T.
|
Philbin
|
Mia
|
32
|
8
|
6
|
14
|
Would be No. 31 on just his Miami data.
|
7.
|
Carroll
|
Sea
|
64
|
9
|
7
|
16
|
Both Ha +/- & TO +/- have improved every year.
|
8.
|
Rivera
|
Car
|
48
|
7
|
13T
|
20
|
First Ha +/- improved, then TO +/- did too.
|
9.
|
Payton
|
NO
|
80
|
3
|
19
|
22
|
Would be higher with Mike Smith's TO +/-.
|
10.
|
Gruden
|
Wash
|
0
|
10
|
16
|
26
|
Picked a great stretch to work in Cincinnati.
|
11T.
|
Tomlin
|
Pitt
|
80
|
1
|
27
|
28
|
Tied with HC of Steelers' bitterest rival.
|
11T.
|
Harbaugh
|
Balt
|
80
|
17
|
11
|
28
|
Tied with HC of Ravens' bitterest rival.
|
13.
|
Arians
|
Ariz
|
16
|
5
|
26
|
31
|
He's finally out from under LeBeau's shadow.
|
14T.
|
Trestman
|
Chi
|
16
|
23
|
9T
|
32
|
Fixed O-line, but may need new DC to move up.
|
14T.
|
Pagano
|
Indy
|
32
|
20
|
12
|
32
|
Needs to improve Ha +/- to move up.
|
14T.
|
L. Smith
|
TB
|
80
|
25
|
9T
|
32
|
Average.
|
17T.
|
Coughlin
|
NYG
|
80
|
13T
|
21T
|
34
|
Average (with 2 great playoff runs).
|
17T.
|
Lewis
|
Cin
|
80
|
13T
|
21T
|
34
|
Average.
|
17T.
|
Zimmer
|
Minn
|
0
|
13T
|
21T
|
34
|
Pass D has improved each of past 4 years.
|
20.
|
Garrett
|
Dal
|
48
|
18
|
18
|
36
|
Slightly below average (except to Jerry Jones).
|
21.
|
M. Smith
|
Atl
|
80
|
30
|
8
|
38
|
Would be higher with Sean Payton's Ha +/-.
|
22.
|
Reid
|
KC
|
80
|
22
|
17
|
39
|
He's surprisingly low on this list.
|
23T.
|
Pettine
|
Clev
|
0
|
19
|
21
|
40
|
Will move up with fewer giveaways.
|
23T.
|
Marrone
|
Buff
|
16
|
27
|
13T
|
40
|
Will have to do better to keep job after sale.
|
25T.
|
Fisher
|
St. L
|
80
|
29
|
15
|
44
|
Be careful betting against him.
|
25T.
|
McCoy
|
SD
|
16
|
16
|
28
|
44
|
Will move up with more takeaways.
|
27.
|
Bradley
|
Jax
|
16
|
31
|
19
|
50
|
Seattle apples fall far from their trees.
|
28.
|
Caldwell
|
Det
|
48
|
26
|
25
|
51
|
Imagine if he didn't have Peyton for 2 years.
|
29.
|
Fox
|
Den
|
80
|
21
|
31
|
52
|
Imagine if he didn't have Peyton for 2 years.
|
30.
|
Ryan
|
NYJ
|
80
|
24
|
29
|
53
|
His Ha +/- has diminished every year of his tenure.
|
31.
|
Allen
|
Oak
|
32
|
28
|
30
|
58
|
Next please.
|
32.
|
Whisenhunt
|
Tenn
|
64
|
32
|
32
|
64
|
Can somebody please get this man a QB?
|
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