Vince Lombardi

QuantCoach.com

INSIDE SPORTS ANALYTICS
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EDWARD EGROS
(FOX4 - DALLAS)

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THE CHALKBOARD

Week 11: QC's 5 Best Bets

Not much time for detailed explanation of the handicapping this week folks. Better designed teams continue to bump along at a 73% winning percentage, which is a little below the expected 75% level. That macro consideration plus the fact that the underdogs this week are a particularly mangy level of mutt has QC looking mostly to design stalwarts and proven overachievers.

1. Jaguars -7.5 over Browns
The Jaguars are 3-0 ATS against Bottom 10 designed teams (Texans, Ravens and Colts). The Browns are the worst designed team in the NFL. Loof for Jacksonville to make it 4-0 with an easy win in Cleveland.

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2. Saints -7.5 over Redskins
New Orleans has soared to No. 3 in play design differential even though QB Drew Brees barely broke a sweat in Week 10 in Buffalo. Minnesota QB Case Keenum, who is has played this year like a bit of a poor man's Brees, carved up Washington last week. As QC said recently, you have to offer at least 10 points for QC to step in front of a New Orleans parade when Sean Payton's team is playing this well.

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3. Packers +2 over Ravens
Green Bay has turned the ball over just 1 time since Brett Hundley took over and QB and he will have to continue to avoid subsidizing opponents if the Packers are going to hang in the race for the NFC North title. Baltimore wins and covers win it runs the ball 30 or more times. When it doesn't, QB Joe Flacco is prone to awful play and turnovers. The Packers have been stiff against the run since the bye, including holding the Bears to 55 yards last week in an upset win in Chicago.

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4. Rams +2 over Vikings
LA has been on fire and leads the NFL in explosive plays. Minnesota, on the other hand, ranks first in preventing explosive plays. The last time the Rams ran into a D that prevents big plays, they committed 5 turnovers and fell to the Seahawks. To avoid that, Sean McVay has to get Todd Gurley going on the ground against a Vikings defense that is usually stingy against the run. In the their only 2 losses, Minnesota' opponents ran the ball more than 30 times. If Gurley can keep the offense balanced and pressure off QB Jared Goff, LA might receive some TO subsidies from Case Keenum, who threw 4 picks to the Giants the last time he faced the Rams.

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5. Patriots -6.5 over Raiders
New England blew out Denver two weeks ago and then hung around through its bye week in the thin Mile High air to get ready for this game at altitude in Mexico City. Tom Brady has posted more than 8.4 QCYPA and tossed 19 TD passes. Belichick has fixed the D. After an awful first 4 games, the Patriots pass coverage has yielded more than 7.15 D-QCYPA just once in its last 5 games. That's not great, but a team can win at that level with Brady at QB. On the other side of the ball, Oakland QB Derek Carr has been extremely inconsistent. He as followed good games with bad for a month and the calendar points to "bad" this week.

Last Week: 2-3
Season: 27-22-1

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