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QC's 5 Best Guesses | Week 13

Markets always correct. QC is a white-hot 9-1 ATS the last two weeks. Even QC expects a correction. Let's do this.

1. Dolphins +3 over Ravens. This line does not seem like much respect for a team that has won 6 games in row. Even more so when you consider the Dolphins only loss to a negatively designed team was on the road on a short week (at Cincinnati Week 5). QB Ryan Tannehill and DC Vance Joseph's D have shown the last 3 weeks they can step up even when opponents contain RB Jay Ajayi. Meanwhile, Baltimore HC John Harbaugh's team just cannot score. Even last week against punchless Cincinnati, Ravens backers needed Bengals K Mike Nugent to miss a PAT in order to avoid a push. Baltimore 1-3 ATS at home if you disregard that game and a Thursday night blitz of winless Cleveland. This should be a physical, low-scoring defensive struggle. Three points in your pocket feels like a lot more in games like that.

2. Redskins +2.5 over Cardinals. Arizona HC Bruce Arians' is facing serious adversity for the first time in his career as an HC. And he is not handling it well. After losing last week in Atlanta in a game in which he gave stud RB David Johnson only 13 carries against the Falcons soft run D, Arians said some of his defenders were "selfish" in the way that played. Huh? The Cardinals D has been the strength of the team . Washington is another team that is soft against the run on D and explosive in the air on offense. So Arians should shorten the game, patiently pound the Redskins D with Johnson, and rely on his own D. But QC's guess is that Arians ego will get in the way, QB Carson Palmer will throw too many times and provide some turnovers, and Washington will cover for the fifth time in six road games.

3. Bills +3 over Raiders. Buffalo is 2-0 ATS on the West Coast and 6-1 ATS when it runs the ball 27 times or more. (The only blemish was last week at home when the Bills laid a whopping 7.5 points.) QB Tyrod Taylor also was happy to have WR Sammie Watkins back last week and showed he can now strike down the field. Oakland has surrendered big rushing totals to teams like Tennessee and Kansas City and LeSean McCoy and Mike Gillislee have run for at last 153 yards in each of their last 4 games. The Raiders are just 1-4 ATS at home, worried about QB Derek Carr's dislocated pinkie on his throwing (though they are not admitting it), and have a crucial meeting on the road with divisional rival Kansas City just a few days after this encounter. If there is ever a "trap game" scenario, this would seem to be it.

4. Seahawsk -6.5 over Panthers. Seattle went to Tampa last week battered and bruised and turned the ball over 3 times in a loss to the Buccaneers. But that is an aberration. Russell Wilson and company had subsizied opponents with a single measly turnover the 7 games prior. So look for the Seahawks austerity measures to return this week. Carolina has been game in its attempts to rally from a 1-5 start, but the Panthers are 1-3-1 ATS on the road. The Panthers offense runs through RB Jonathan Stewart as much as it runs through QB Cam Newtown. When Stewart cannot get going, Newton tends to be overrun by the pass rush and provide turnover subsidies. Such a developments are a definite possibility with Carolina's weak offensive line in a shambles as the result of injuries and DT Michael Bennett and S Earl Thomas returning to the Seattle lineup.

5. Colts -2 over Jets. The first 5 weeks of the season, NY's pass defense was bombarded by the likes of Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor and Russell Wilson. But since then, the Jets' pass D has been much better. Indy OC Rob Chudzinski is a Norv Turner disciple who loves to throw downfield. With QB Andrew Luck returning from injury and HC Chuck Pagano's team in desperate need for a win to keep pace in the AFC South, this will be a good test of whether Todd Bowles' pass D is for real. The Jets have covered the last 2 home games that QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has started, but no team is better off a loss than the Colts with Luck under center.

Last Week: 4-1
Season: 31-27-2

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