QC's 5 Best
Guesses | Week 13
Markets always correct. QC is a white-hot 9-1 ATS the last two weeks. Even QC
expects a correction. Let's do this.
1. Dolphins +3 over Ravens. This line does
not seem like much respect for a team that has won 6 games in row. Even more so
when you consider the Dolphins only loss to a negatively designed team was on
the road on a short week (at Cincinnati Week 5). QB Ryan Tannehill and DC Vance
Joseph's D have shown the last 3 weeks they can step up even when opponents
contain RB Jay Ajayi. Meanwhile, Baltimore HC John Harbaugh's team just cannot
score. Even last week against punchless Cincinnati, Ravens backers needed
Bengals K Mike Nugent to miss a PAT in order to avoid a push. Baltimore 1-3 ATS
at home if you disregard that game and a Thursday night blitz of winless
Cleveland. This should be a physical, low-scoring defensive struggle. Three
points in your pocket feels like a lot more in games like that.
2. Redskins +2.5 over Cardinals. Arizona HC
Bruce Arians' is facing serious adversity for the first time in his career as
an HC. And he is not handling it well. After losing last week in Atlanta in a
game in which he gave stud RB David Johnson only 13 carries against the Falcons
soft run D, Arians said some of his defenders were "selfish" in the
way that played. Huh? The Cardinals D has been the strength of the team .
Washington is another team that is soft against the run on D and explosive in
the air on offense. So Arians should shorten the game, patiently pound the
Redskins D with Johnson, and rely on his own D. But QC's guess is that Arians
ego will get in the way, QB Carson Palmer will throw too many times and provide
some turnovers, and Washington will cover for the fifth time in six road games.
3. Bills +3 over Raiders. Buffalo is 2-0
ATS on the West Coast and 6-1 ATS when it runs the ball 27 times or more. (The
only blemish was last week at home when the Bills laid a whopping 7.5 points.)
QB Tyrod Taylor also was happy to have WR Sammie Watkins back last week and
showed he can now strike down the field. Oakland has surrendered big rushing
totals to teams like Tennessee and Kansas City and LeSean McCoy and Mike
Gillislee have run for at last 153 yards in each of their last 4 games. The
Raiders are just 1-4 ATS at home, worried about QB Derek Carr's dislocated
pinkie on his throwing (though they are not admitting it), and have a crucial
meeting on the road with divisional rival Kansas City just a few days after
this encounter. If there is ever a "trap game" scenario, this would
seem to be it.
4. Seahawsk -6.5 over Panthers. Seattle
went to Tampa last week battered and bruised and turned the ball over 3 times
in a loss to the Buccaneers. But that is an aberration. Russell Wilson and
company had subsizied opponents with a single measly turnover the 7 games
prior. So look for the Seahawks austerity measures to return this week.
Carolina has been game in its attempts to rally from a 1-5 start, but the
Panthers are 1-3-1 ATS on the road. The Panthers offense runs through RB
Jonathan Stewart as much as it runs through QB Cam Newtown. When Stewart cannot
get going, Newton tends to be overrun by the pass rush and provide turnover
subsidies. Such a developments are a definite possibility with Carolina's weak
offensive line in a shambles as the result of injuries and DT Michael Bennett
and S Earl Thomas returning to the Seattle lineup.
5. Colts -2 over Jets. The first 5 weeks of
the season, NY's pass defense was bombarded by the likes of Andy Dalton, Tyrod
Taylor and Russell Wilson. But since then, the Jets' pass D has been much
better. Indy OC Rob Chudzinski is a Norv Turner disciple who loves to throw
downfield. With QB Andrew Luck returning from injury and HC Chuck Pagano's team
in desperate need for a win to keep pace in the AFC South, this will be a good
test of whether Todd Bowles' pass D is for real. The Jets have covered the last
2 home games that QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has started, but no team is better off a
loss than the Colts with Luck under center.
Last Week: 4-1