THE CHALKBOARD
Divsional Round
Playoff Preview
No totals picks this week as QC is still recovering from a brutal 0-4 Wild Card
Round on totals. The Chargers and Ravens each missed a field goal in a game
that went under by 1.5 points. Ouch. But what really stung was Dallas QB Dak
Prescott's reprising "Mr. Toad's Wild Ride" to pick up 16 yards on
3rd down and 14 deep in Q4 in a 24-22 win over Seattle. Without Prescott's
(magnificent) effort, the Cowboys would have settled for field goal and it is
unlikely the total would not have topped 43.5. It's called gambling for a
reason.
AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE
Kansas City (-5.5) vs.
Indianapolis
PLAY DESIGN DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: Kansas City 1st; Indianapolis 18th
PLAYER PRODUCTIVITY DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: Kansas City 1st; Indianapolis
18th
TURNOVER MARGIN: Kansas City 6th (+9); Indianapolis 13th (+3)
Since 2009, better designed NFL teams are 18-6 in the Divisional Round (and 3-9
on the road). The Chiefs recipe is simple: Getting QB Pat Mahomes, who ranks
No. 2 in the NFL in first half passer rating (115) going early and jump to the
lead. Over the past 10 years, Mahomes' 9.355 QCYPA has been betted only by
Green Bay's Aaron Rogers in 2011 (Packers were upset 37-20 in Divisional Round
by NY Giants) and Atlanta's Matt Ryan (Falcons spanked Seahawks in Divisional
Round by near identical score, 36-20). Colts' QB Andrew Luck ranks only No. 24
in first half pass4er rating (88.7). Getting ahead will take a lot of pressure
off DC Bob Sutton's run defense, which has yielded 162 yards rushing per game
over the last 5 games. Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS when it runs for greater han 158
yards. Moreover, the Colts average 5.1 yards per carry on rushes Nos. 11-20
(No. 4), but only 4 yards per carry on attempts 1-10 (4.0). If Indianapolis
falls behind and rushes fewer than 20 times, the advantage will swing to Andy
Reid's team as Luck's passer rating is just 64.5 when he is pressured (per ESPN
NFL Matchup) and the Chiefs have sacked opposing QBs for at least -13 yards in
losses in 14 of 16 games. No HC in the playoffs is getting better O-line play
than Frank Reich, so it is likely that Kansas City's only chance to stop Indy
is make Reich and Luck one-dimensional. Even if this happens, expect the Colts
to mount a furious Q4 charge. Luck never goes away (as Reid knows from seeing a
28 point playoff lead evaporate the last time these two teams met in the
playoffs). Compounding that problem is Mahomes is now Reid's leading rusher as
a result of the release of RB Kareem Hunt for off-the-field behavior. Hunt
provided the four-minute hammer that Reid and Mahomes needed to put teams away.
Without Hunt, the Chiefs are 1-4 ATS. For all of those reasons, expect a wild
game (unless the weather gets in the way). The result could go in any
direction, but QC's best guess is Kansas City hangs on by forcing a late
turnover and exapes with field goal win.
QC's Pick: Indianapolis Colts ATS; Kansas City Chiefs
SU
New England (-4) vs. LA Chargers
PLAY DESIGN DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: New England 4th; LA Chargers 2nd
PLAYER PRODUCITIVITY DIFFERENTIAL: New England 6th; LA Chargers 2nd
TURNOVER MARGIN: New England 5th (+10); LA Chargers 15th (+1)
LA DC Gus Bradley stunned QC last week by coming up with a brilliant defensive
design that deployed 7 DBs to stop the run. QC did not see that coming.
Neither did Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson or his play designers. As a result, the
Chargers moved with a 23-17 win despite QB Phil Rivers' below average
performance. HC Anthony Lynn will need more from Rivers this week, but that
might be a problem as Bill Belichick has almost always been able to get the
best of Rivers. The LA QB has thrown 1 TD pass in 4 of his last 5 games after
throwing at least 2 TD passes in his first 12 games. The Chargers also have
committed 10 TO in their last 4 games no passer except KC's Pat Mahomes has
exceeded 6.6 QCYPA at Gillette Stadium this year. Yikes! New England has been a
ground machine at home, running for at least 122 yards in 7 of 8 home games
(8-0 SU; 6-2 ATS). LA is 1-4 ATS when an opponent runs for 122 yards or more.
Yikes! The Chargers have been road warriors this year, winning all 9 of their
travel games (they lost a "road" game to the Rams in LA won a
"home" game over the Titans in London). But this is only the second
time they have played back-to-back road games and the first time both games
were in the Pacific Time Zone (at Seattle, at Oakland). LA playe at Denver in
the thin air, then at Baltimore and now at New England, the toughest venue of
all. It has been a great year for the Chargers but lighting really will have to
strike for Rivers best Tom Brady for the first time in his career against a
team that has won 7 straight Divisional Round games by margins of 35, 13, 21,
4, 7, 18 and 21 points.
QC's Pick: New England Patriots ATS and SU
NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE
LA Rams (-7) vs. Dallas
PLAY DESIGN DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: LA Rams 6th; Dallas 19th
PLAYER PRODUCITIVITY DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: LA Rams 3rd; Dallas 19th
TURNOVER MARGIN: LA Rams 4th (+11); Dallas 12th (+3)
LA Rams' HC Sean McVay has done everything an HC can do in the NFL except win a
playoff game. The Rams bombed in this spot last year against Atlanta. This
looks like a great spot for LA to reverse that outcome. LA led the NFL in first
downs (400) and committed just 1 TO per game at home. It's defense led by
monster DT Aaron Donald forced 30 TO during the regular season. Against
negatively designed teams like the Cowboys, the Rams were 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS
with wins by 20, 34, 3, 2 14 and 22 points. The Cowboys' will need QB Dak
Prescott to both move the chains and avoid TO. But Prescott has been sacked for
-21.7 yards per game and that will make achieving either objective difficult.
If Zeke Elliott can have a big game on the ground, Dallas' chances will
increase dramatically as LA is 0-5 ATS when its opponent runs the ball 30 or
more times. While Elliott and friend have run the ball 30 or more times in 5
games and are 4-1 ATS in those games, all of those efforts came at home under
the big video board in the Jones Mahal. The Rams led the NFL in first half
scoring (about 20 points per game) while Dallas comes in near the rear (about 5
points a game). If LA its these averages and holds a 14-point halft-time lead,
the second half could be ugle as Donald, et al. will not have to concern
themselves with Elliott runs and will be able to pin their ears back and turn
the ferocity of their pusuit of Dak up to full blast.
QC's Pick: LA Rams ATS and SU
New Orleans (-8.5) vs. Philadelphia
PLAY DESIGN DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: New Orleans 11th; Philadelphia 14th
PLAYER PRODUCITIVITY DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: New Orleans 5th; Philadelphia
15th
TURNOVER MARGIN: New Orleans 7th (+8); Philadelphia 25th (-6)
Philadelphia lost in New Orleans during the regular season 48-7 and will be
trying to pull off what Rex Ryan, Mark Sanchez and the rest of the NY Jets
pulled off in 2010: Beat a No. 1 seed (Patriots) on the road who had handed
them a 40+ point defeat during the regular season. That New England team was
both better designed than the Saints and posted an incredible +28 TO margin.
Sean Payton's team is solid, but it is not nearly as scary as the 2010 New
England team. Like Sanchez in 2010, Eagles QB Nick Foles will have to play
TO-free and efficiently for Philadelphia to win. He has a good chance to do so
because Jason Peters and his O-line mates have been playing great of late.
Foles has plenty of weapons with which to work. While the Eagles run game is
meh, Foles has the best duo of TEs in the NFL in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goeddert.
Expect to see a lot of multiple TE formations and Foles target his TEs perhaps
as many as 20 times to keep the chains moving. If he can do that, he can keep
the ball out of Drew Brees hands. Sentimalists are pointing out that the last
time Payton's team was a No. 1 seed in 2009, it also finished 13-3 with losses
to Dallas, Tampa Bay, and Carolina. That team (like this one) was just 4-4 ATS
at home. The Saints are a running team. Brees did not throw more than 1 TD pass
in any of his last 4 starts. New Orleans is 10-2 ATS this year when it runs for
more than 100 yards. But the Saints are 0-3 ATS when they run the ball less
than 20 times (including a late meeting at home with Pittsburgh). DT Fletcher
Cox and company have seen less than 20 rushes in 6 of their last 7 games. If
that happens again in the Super Dome, then Philadelphia is likely to not only
cover the spread, but also win SU.
QC's Pick: Philadelphia Eagles ATS and
SU
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